Coppock's buy signal on the precious metal complex lasted all of one month, as the increasingly certainty of a rise in the Federal Funds rate would be delivered by the FOMC on 16 December.
And so it came to pass, with the Fed pushing through a 0.25 per cent increase and gold suffering a sharp fall. Yet a look at the price action on spot gold over the last month paints a slightly more nuanced picture. November did indeed see a weakening of the gold price, in the belief that a rise was coming; yet it strengthened considerably in the first weak of December, a reflection the possibility that the Fed would once again postpone the promised increase as well as a bout of risk aversion; equity markets had a terrible start to December, with commodity related industries and economies leading the rout.
Gold loses its glister
Source: Bloomberg
South Africa, whose index delivered a Coppock sell in November, was at the epicenter - the resource dependent economy has had three finance ministers in a week as it struggles to cope with the massive depreciation of its currency against the dollar. Janet Yellen's move is hardly likely to improve that situation, increasing the risk of capital flight, and its no surprise that most emerging markets we cover with Coppock remain in sell territory.
November's new Coppock signals
| Buys | Sells |
| None | South Africa JSE Top 40 Index |
| Cancelled sells | Cancelled buys |
| Korea SE Composite Price Index | S&P GSCI Gold Bullion Total Return Index |
| Germany Dax 30 Index | S&P GSCI Precious Metals Total Return Index |
| Euro Stoxx 50 Index | |
| Norway Oslo Exchange All Share TR Index |
Latest Coppock readings
| North America | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Latest signal | Latest signal (date) |
| SPX | 16.69 | 11.9 | 9.62 | 8.24 | SELL | Mar-14 |
| DJINDUS | 11.74 | 7.46 | 5.68 | 4.56 | SELL | Feb-15 |
| NASDAQ 100 | 35.28 | 29.62 | 27.2 | 26 | SELL | Sep-14 |
| NASDAQ COMP | 30.59 | 25.68 | 23.3 | 22.34 | SELL | Apr-14 |
| S&P/TSX | 0.65 | -4.59 | -8.91 | -11.86 | SELL | Oct-14 |
| Asia Pacific, Africa | ||||||
| BANGKOK S.E.T. - PRICE INDEX | 8.39 | 0.75 | -5.38 | -10.77 | SELL | Apr-15 |
| FTSE BURSA MALAYSIA KLCI - PRICE INDEX | -12.85 | -15.93 | -17.3 | -17.55 | SELL | May-14 |
| FTSE CHINA B 35 - PRICE INDEX | 76.54 | 65.59 | 57.8 | 49.59 | SELL | Jul-15 |
| HANG SENG - PRICE INDEX | 17.37 | 8.89 | 3.78 | -0.32 | SELL | Jul-15 |
| KOREA SE COMPOSITE (KOSPI) - PRICE INDEX | 2.73 | 1.41 | 1.26 | 1.34 | CANCEL SELL* | Nov-15 |
| IDX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX | 9.001 | -0.702 | -7.745 | -13.976 | SELL | Apr-15 |
| STRAITS TIMES INDEX L - PRICE INDEX | 2.82 | -4.41 | -8.74 | -13.78 | SELL | May-15 |
| TAIWAN SE WEIGHED TAIEX - PRICE INDEX | 4.55 | -1.24 | -5.43 | -9.24 | SELL | Sep-14 |
| TOPIX - PRICE INDEX | 55.62 | 49.3 | 46.31 | 43.16 | SELL | Aug-15 |
| ASX 200 | 6.6 | 1.5 | -1 | -3.1 | SELL | Jun-15 |
| NZ 50 | 16.08 | 12.86 | 12.31 | 12.18 | SELL | Mar-15 |
| JSE TOP 40 | 9.82 | 7.09 | 7.83 | 7.69 | SELL* | Nov-15 |
| SENSEX | 35.73 | 26 | 17.54 | 10.42 | SELL | Mar-15 |
| South America | ||||||
| MEXICO IPC (BOLSA) - PRICE INDEX | 10.26 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.99 | SELL | May-15 |
| BRAZIL BOVESPA - TOT RETURN IND | -4.03 | -10.6 | -17.12 | -20.22 | SELL | May-15 |
| MSCI EM LATIN AMERICA U$ - PRICE INDEX | -49.464 | -57.281 | -62.787 | -65.642 | CANCEL BUY | Nov-14 |
| Europe/UK | ||||||
| AEX INDEX (AEX) - PRICE INDEX | 34.06 | 29.3 | 27.3 | 25.56 | SELL | Aug-15 |
| ATHEX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX | -71.4 | -72.6 | -71.85 | -70.33 | BUY | Oct-15 |
| ATX - AUSTRIAN TRADED INDEX - PRICE INDEX | -2.05 | -1.14 | 2.01 | 7.44 | BUY | Feb-14 |
| BEL 20 - PRICE INDEX | 33.76 | 29.98 | 28.01 | 27.75 | SELL | Aug-15 |
| DAX 30 PERFORMANCE - PRICE INDEX | 30.13 | 25.9 | 25.02 | 26.33 | CANCEL SELL* | Nov-15 |
| EURO STOXX 50 - PRICE INDEX | 19.824 | 16.015 | 15.035 | 15.264 | CANCEL SELL* | Nov-15 |
| FRANCE CAC 40 - PRICE INDEX | 21.64 | 19.95 | 20.62 | 21.79 | CANCEL SELL* | Oct-15 |
| FTSE 100 - PRICE INDEX | -1.4 | -4.63 | -6.53 | -7.35 | SELL | Jun-15 |
| FTSE 250 - PRICE INDEX | 18.71 | 18.71 | 18.61 | 19.41 | CANCEL SELL | Feb-15 |
| FTSE ALL SHARE - PRICE INDEX | 1.9 | -0.75 | -2.3 | -2.83 | SELL | Jun-15 |
| FTSE MIB INDEX - PRICE INDEX | 16.17 | 15.41 | 16.77 | 18.81 | CANCEL SELL | Oct-15 |
| IBEX 35 - PRICE INDEX | 8.22 | 2.54 | -0.1 | -1.71 | SELL | Sep-14 |
| IRELAND SE GENERAL (ISEQ) - PRICE INDEX | 58.93 | 61.67 | 64.15 | 67.71 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
| OMX STOCKHOLM 30 (OMXS30) - PRICE INDEX | 32.18 | 26.62 | 22.85 | 20.06 | SELL | Jun-15 |
| OSLO EXCHANGE ALL SHARE - TOT RETURN IND | 5.65 | 1.9 | 1.42 | 1.67 | CANCEL SELL* | Nov-15 |
| PORTUGAL PSI-20 - PRICE INDEX | -33.36 | -30.21 | -24.31 | -18.03 | BUY | Jul-15 |
| RUSSIAN MICEX INDEX - PRICE INDEX | 34.8 | 34.95 | 35.48 | 38.55 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
| SWISS MARKET (SMI) - PRICE INDEX | 12.18 | 9.23 | 7.39 | 6.06 | SELL | Aug-15 |
*New Coppock signals
