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Chart: Can the low oil price be a boon for global growth?

The low oil price is contributing to fears a global slowdown is imminent but the data doesn't necessarily support this thesis
February 12, 2016

There's a lot of uncertainty about what exactly the impact of low oil prices will be on the global economy.

Some proclaim it boosts the amount of cash in consumers' wallets and, therefore, is likely to increase consumer spending and propel GDP growth.

The other school of thought is that a low oil price is a sign of weakening demand across the economy. If there isn't enough demand for oil to push the price up, then potentially industrial production is slowing and so too consumer demand.

It is arguably the latter of these two which is winning investors' hearts and minds at the moment judging by the huge move to safe-haven assets such as gold, the Japanese yen and government debt in recent weeks.

But perhaps investors don't need to be so fearful of equities amid the plunging oil price.

Alex Scott, multi-asset manager at Seven Investment Management, says while investors are "looking for evidence of recession in low oil prices", histroric data would suggest a "diametrically opposite view is more reasonable".

A low oil price has spurred GDP growth in the past

Mr Scott says while the high amount of energy exposure within the FTSE 100 makes the recent correlation here between oil prices and stocks understandable, it makes less sense for other markets such as the US and Japan.

"The recent correlation between oil prices and equity markets looks unjustified and should fade, or even reverse, when investors lose their misplaced anxiety over falling oil prices and refocus on fundamentals," Mr Scott says.

He says the chart (above) shows there is an 18-month lag between cause and effect but when oil prices fall sharply (i.e. the blue line rises in the chart) "we have always seen global GDP growth rise sharply in the aftermath".

"Why should we expect this time to be different?"