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US funds give short shrift to Carillion's underlying quality

Shares in Carillion have been heavily shorted on growing macro concerns, but we think these figures show quality will out over time
March 4, 2016

Shareholders in Carillion (CLLN) can be satisfied at the progress made through 2015, as double-digit organic revenue growth was augmented by over £2bn in new framework agreements, together with £41.1bn in identified pipeline opportunities. Underlying margins pulled back 30 basis points, but a swelling top line drove related profits up by 8 per cent to £234m. Given the size and scale of its operations, progress at Carillion tends towards the incremental, but last year's performance augers well despite growing macroeconomic concerns.

IC TIP: Buy at 286.4p

Profitability has been helped along by implementation of a few big-ticket contracts, supplemented by two bolt-on acquisitions, the Rokstad Corporation and the Outland Group, which have expanded the group's support services offering in Canada. The underlying result would have been even more impressive bar a one-third increase in the net finance expense to £57.9m.

The total value of new orders in 2015 fell 27 per cent to £3.7bn, a decline management attributed to the hiatus in public sector contract awards caused by the general election in May. This year is also likely to be skewed towards the second half.

Analysts at Peel Hunt expect anticipated 2016 pre-tax profits of £180m (from £176.5m in 2015), giving adjusted EPS of 34p.

CARILLION (CLLN)
ORD PRICE:286.4pMARKET VALUE:£1.23bn
TOUCH:285.5p-286.5p12-MONTGH HIGH:367pLOW: 244p
DIVIDEND YIELD:6.4%PE RATIO:9
NET ASSET VALUE:231p*NET DEBT:17%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20115.0514332.016.90
20124.4016534.617.25
20134.0811123.317.50
20144.0714328.017.75
20154.5915530.918.25
% change+13+9+10+3

Ex-div: 12 May

Payment: 10 Jun

*Includes intangible assets of £1.63bn, or 380p a share.