True, sterling has dipped against the euro - its value has fallen 4.5 per cent so far this year - but factor that into the performance of the FTSE All-Share index and its decline in the year to date is still only 5.9 per cent. That means the All-Share's currency-adjusted return is not as poor as the broad-based STOXX Europe 600 index - down 7.6 per cent - or Paris's CAC 40 index - down 6.1 per cent. Germany's DAX index has been more resilient - it has only lost 3.6 per cent so far. Still, London's performance is hardly that of an equity market whose domestic economy teeters on the brink of the unknown and the unappetising.
Nor have those sectors that are obviously vulnerable in the event of Brexit been especially weak. General financial, a mish-mash of a sector that includes fund managers, specialist lenders and market services providers, has fallen 8.2 per cent. But, given the risks posed by Brexit, that looks a sober enough response. Similarly, the property companies that comprise real-estate investment trusts have also been hit - the 'reit' sector is down 5.7 per cent. But that, too, looks measured given the uncertainties to London's property values and the capital's development potential. Perhaps most curious is that the 'home construction' sub-sector within the household goods sector has barely changed at all this year despite the threat to house prices in the south-east, which has knocked 13 per cent off the price of Berkeley (BKG) owing to its strong London connection.
From this we have a choice of conclusions: either that Brexit is about as likely as snow on 23 June or that, if it gets voted through, then - contrary to the forebodings - it won't actually damage the UK's economy. Of these two possibilities, there is little doubt that other markets point towards the 'won't happen' alternative.
Opinion polls, a market of voters' intentions, continue to lean towards the Remain camp - just about. Wikipedia's useful summary of polls on the UK's membership of the EU tells us that, of the 83 polls conducted so far this year, just 28 have been in favour of the 'Leave' campaign. Granted, this shows some swing towards the exit camp - in the 23 polls since president Obama gave his unequivocal support for the UK remaining in the EU on 22 April, 11 have favoured leaving. That could be coincidence, or the bloody-minded response of an electorate that does not like foreigners telling them what to do, in which case it may not be significant. Besides, it's not as if the Brexiteers have become a bigger proportion of those polled since president Obama had his six-cents' worth. Their average share of voting intentions is 41 per cent - to 44 per cent for the Remain camp - with little variation around either figure.
Meanwhile, it's as if the bookmakers, who certainly do run a market, have not even noticed the pollsters' findings. Almost without exception the bookies reckon that a Remain vote is a foregone conclusion. As I look at oddschecker.com, the best - ie, least short - odds on staying in are four-to-one on and most bookies are out at six-to-one or seven-to-one on. The converse of those odds - the chances of a Leave vote coming through - are appropriately long. Most bookies are four-to-one or seven-to-two against.
True, Betdaq, a sports betting exchange owned by Ladbrokes (LAD), throws up some intriguing numbers. It offers the strangely short odds for leaving of 11-to-eight against. Simultaneously, its odds for staying in are nine-to-two on. In a way, this can't be right since it means the book is badly unbalanced. In terms of probabilities, the two 'events' - a Remain vote and a Leave vote - have a 1.24 chance of happening and clearly that's not possible. Yet Betdaq is an exchange of odds, so it does not have to run a balanced book. Its prices simply reflect what its punters reckon and, interestingly, its probability of the Leave vote coming through - it's 0.42 - most accurately reflects what the polls are telling us.
Despite that, the conventional bookies could still be right. After all, the vital wager is not to guess the proportion of votes in each camp but to reckon which side will win where just one extra vote from an electorate of 45m will do the job. That being so, the ability of the Remain horse to keep its nose in front from first to - almost - last may be telling.
And from this it may be possible to synthesise an investment tactic. On the logic that few investors will want to make many - if any - changes to an equity portfolio based on the uncertain consequences of an unknown outcome, but also assuming that the short-term effect on share prices of an unlikely vote to leave would be negative, then it could make sense to place a four-to-one against bet on a vote to Leave. True, the effect would be much the same as buying a put on the FTSE 100 index, but placing the bet might be more fun - a commodity that could be in short supply if the electorate really does opt for out.
