The point is a fairly obvious one, but Mr Birol believes its lesson is being overlooked. That's because global policymakers risk assuming that the North American energy revolution will continue unabated, sidelining Middle Eastern producers in the process. In fact, the world remains as reliant on OPEC (and more specifically Middle Eastern producers) as ever.
Falls in non-Middle Eastern OPEC production means that, on a proportional basis, more of the world's oil supply comes from countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran, which now account for around 34 per cent of the output. As the graph below shows, OPEC proportional supply to the global market has held firm throughout the oil price slump.
The IEA's warning comes days after the publication of a report from oil consultants Rystad Energy, which calculates that the US has surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia as the largest holder of oil and gas reserves. Given that the unconventional producers in the US are now the low-cost swing producers, the country's share of the global market is likely to steadily increase. But as Mr Birol notes, the US "is still an oil importer and will be for some time".
