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Seven Days: 22 July 2016

Our take on the biggest stories of the week
July 22, 2016

Not so fast

Caution on cut

The rate-setting committee at the Bank of England should not instantly satiate the growing appetite in markets for a cut in the base rate, according to Martin Weale. The outgoing member of the monetary policy committee said that given the uncertainty about the impact of leaving the European Union, the Bank should wait until it has more evidence that an even more accommodative monetary policy stance is needed. He said he did not view consumers or businesses as "panic-struck" as they had been in 2008 and hence there was no instant need for a cut.

 

No slowdown

China warning

The outlook for economic growth in China might have been upgraded by ratings agency Standard & Poor's, but that's not necessarily a positive thing. The company said while it now expected China's economy to grow 6.6 per cent this year (up from 6.35 per cent previously) and 6.3 per cent in 2017 (compared to 6 per cent), it did not think the health of the economy had improved. S&P Asia Pacific economist Paul Gruenwald said the agency had overestimated the authorities' appetite for slower growth and thought the current growth trajectory was "unsustainable" given high credit growth.

Seeking access

FCA's Brexit hopes

Access to the single market should be maintained alongside gaining trade agreements with other countries, according to Andrew Bailey, chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority. Having only formally become head of the watchdog a week after the EU referendum vote, Mr Bailey said he welcomed new chancellor Philip Hammond's statement that the UK should seek access to the single market in forthcoming negotiations. Mr Bailey said healthy competition in financial services was supported by cross-border trade.

 

Cold bath

IMF cools stance

Prior to the EU vote, those wanting to leave suggested predictions of stark economic contraction post-exit were nothing but scaremongering. And fresh numbers from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) may add credence to that argument. It did drop its forecasts for global growth this year and next, but only by 0.1 percentage point, which Capital Economics called "surprising" given its prior view there would be "severe regional and global damage". It did, however, take 1 percentage point off the UK's expected growth, thus dropping to 1.3 per cent in 2017.

 

Mined the gap

Production shortfalls

Miners BHP Billiton and Anglo American were two of the biggest fallers in the FTSE 100 on 20 July, thanks to mixed production reports. BHP, which fell 3 per cent, set a company record for Western Australia iron ore production, though this fell short of guidance and the company now expects to book an additional charge of $175m in the half year to June 2016. Meanwhile, Anglo American has slashed its copper production target after bad weather hit its operations in Chile.

 

Coming unstuck

New stamp

Stricken stamp and collectibles trader Stanley Gibbons is undergoing a significant restructuring. That should come as little surprise given recent goings on at the company, but the overhaul involves re-evaluating accounting practices, tax arrangements and the board. Chief executive Mike Hall and finance chief Donal Duff have stepped down with immediate effect and their roles made redundant. In their place, Andrew Cook will serve as financial director with Harry Wilson as chairman.

 

Brexit flightpath

Wizzing away

Central and eastern Europe-focused budget carrier Wizz Air has said it would halve its intended second-half growth to the UK as a direct result of the Brexit vote and the weaker pound. Management said sterling's fall had led to a "notable weakness in fares" in euro terms on routes to and from the UK. Wizz Air said it had already started re-adjusting its network due to the currency weakness and had been rapidly redeploying its capacity to other non-UK routes. British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines also said post-vote it would modestly trim capacity growth in the short term.

Meerkats, robots, opera singers, epic struts: the stuff of waking nightmares and daytime TV adverts. Price comparison websites (PCWs) have invaded our living rooms, our personal finances, and are now rising up the agenda of the private investor.

In the core motor insurance market, two-thirds of new sales now come via PCWs (see graph). This rise to prominence is soon to be reflected in equity market activity. Esure (ESUR) is considering a demerger of Gocompare.com, having appointed a new chief executive for the business. Analysts posit a market valuation of around £455m, compared with the £190m total implied when esure took full ownership last year. BGL Group, the privately-owned parent of the all-conquering Comparethemarket.com, is planning a float expected in the first quarter of next year, with a £2bn valuation expected.