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Ever-evolving GKN sees mixed currency outcomes after Brexit

The maker of aviation and automotive components continues to drive through efficiencies, but sterling's post-Brexit slump has had mixed effects
July 26, 2016

Shareholders in GKN (GKN) were treated to a reasonably solid trading performance at the half-year mark. A slight uptick in organic growth was encouraging, particularly given global pressure on civil aerospace sales. Doubtless there could be some disquiet over a 40-basis-point reduction in the underlying trading margin, while full-year earnings will be held in check due to a £35m cost optimisation charge and ongoing integration expenses linked to last year's acquisition of Fokker Technologies.

IC TIP: Buy at 297.7p

In the main, however, these are temporary effects. The maker of aviation and automotive components remains intent on bolstering financial performance and competitiveness in the face of unpredictable end markets. The one-off optimisation charge is part of a programme designed to deliver £30m in annual fixed cost savings from 2017, including a reduction in headcount. Ongoing efficiencies are also accruing as labour gives way to increased automated inspection and robotic assembly.

It's difficult to gauge the likely impact of the Brexit vote on the European automotive and civil aviation markets, but GKN's management expects "little impact on GKN over the medium term". This might be wishful thinking, but for a firm that sells the majority of its products in dollars and euros, the weakening of sterling subsequent to the vote has proved beneficial - at least in terms of headline numbers. In addition to a £371m boost from acquisitions, underlying sales were also £202m to the good after currency translations.

GKN has a hedging strategy in place to counter volatility in foreign exchange markets, and currency effects tend to cancel themselves out over the long run, though the income statement and cash flows should benefit if, as some suspect, sterling remains lower for longer. But it should be noted that there are negative effects in train for the group's net debt, which is predicated on dollar- and euro-denominated bond issues, and its pension deficit, which is swelling due to the dramatic fall in bond yields.

Analysts at JPMorgan Cazenove are looking at adjusted profits of £742m for the December year-end, leading to EPS of 26.4p, against £679m and 25.2p in 2015.

GKN (GKN)
ORD PRICE:298pMARKET VALUE:£5.10bn
TOUCH:297.8p-298.3p12-MONTH HIGH:325pLOW: 246p
DIVIDEND YIELD:2.9%PE RATIO:26
NET ASSET VALUE:110p*NET DEBT:48%

Half-year to 30 JunTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20153.622129.92.90
20164.241829.52.95
% change+17-14-4+2

Ex-div: 11 Aug

Payment: 19 Sep

*Includes intangible assets of £2.01bn, or 117p a share.