If the final surveys confirm the flash ones, they'll show that the manufacturing and services sectors have both contracted quite sharply, as Brexit-induced uncertainty depressed new orders.
The damage might be especially severe in the construction sector, because uncertainty might well cause companies to postpone orders for expensive projects. We saw this last month, with big drops in orders and output, and might see the same again next week.
Brexit-induced uncertainty might also hit the eurozone. Purchasing managers there should confirm the findings of flash surveys, which showed slower growth in manufacturing and services.
Things might be better in the US, however. Monday's ISM survey should show that manufacturing is growing steadily, and certainly doing better than it did in the winter. And Friday's labour market report could show a net rise in jobs of around 200,000. This, however, is partly a sign of slow productivity growth and not merely of a strong economy.
Those numbers might also show that annual growth in hourly earnings has edged up to 2.7 per cent; a year ago it was 2.2 per cent. This is evidence that the tighter labour market is starting to generate some inflation, especially as wage growth isn't being offset by great productivity gains. This will put pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates later this year.
There's no such pressure in the UK, though. On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to cut Bank rate by a quarter point to 0.25 per cent; it might also announce a resumption of quantitative easing, and perhaps some other measures to encourage borrowing.
This will come despite a rise in expected inflation. In the accompanying Inflation Report, the Bank will probably forecast that CPI inflation will rise above its 2 per cent target next year, thanks to sterling's fall raising import prices. However, it's also likely to say that weaker economic activity will suppress inflation thereafter, and that it is "looking through" the temporary rise in inflation and is instead trying to support economic activity.
