Thursday's survey by the CBI is likely to show that export orders are above normal, probably due to the fall in the pound triggered by June's vote. However, overall orders are likely to be subdued, which implies weak domestic orders.
This is partly because non-exporters who import raw materials suffer a squeeze on profits when sterling falls. It is also because some firms have scaled back expansion plans because of the uncertainty created by the Brexit vote. This should be evident in a report from the Bank of England's regional agents on Wednesday, which could show that investment and hiring intentions are weaker than a few months ago. Granted, only a few firms are cutting investment and jobs significantly - but economic slowdowns occur because of what happens to a minority of firms, not the 'average' one.
Other figures in the week will remind us not to be very optimistic about the potential for an export boom, because they'll show that our main trading partner is still in the doldrums. Flash purchasing managers' surveys from the eurozone on Tuesday are likely to show that both manufacturing and services are growing only slowly, and although the National Bank of Belgium should report a rise in business confidence, this might only partly reverse last month's fall. Overall, the figures will suggest that the eurozone economy is growing at an annualised rate of only around 1 per cent, despite loose monetary policy. This is consistent with the fear of secular stagnationists, that trend growth is low across developed economies.
This is one reason why the Fed is expected to announce no change in interest rates on Wednesday. Weak global growth, allied to recent figures showing a lacklustre labour market, suggest there is no immediate danger of a significant rise in inflation. The Fed will thus believe it can support growth by keeping rates low.
The fact that the US economy is growing only modestly, despite negative real interest rates, is a sign that the 'equilibrium' real rate is now much lower than it was before the crisis. This also corroborates fears of secular stagnation.
