Price increases are evident in some areas, most clearly in what Americans call 'shelter': rents, house prices and hotel accommodation. Insurance cover, especially healthcare in the US, has also leapfrogged most other increases, as always hitting the poorest hardest. Food and transport, though, are even more important to those on the bottom rung, having an immediate impact on wellbeing.
With this in mind I did a totally unscientific recce of how far my money would go on groceries. I, like so many others, have changed my recipe for shopping over the past decade, weighing up on comparison websites, dutifully dipping into the discounters, then adding a drizzle from gourmet purveyors.
First the good news: fresh fruit and veg at my local German supermarket come in at 29p for a celery or an aubergine, 37p for a cucumber, 39p a kilo for red onions and 46p for potatoes - making a healthy vegetarian offering nice and cheap; not so interesting were red peppers at £3.98 and sugar snap peas for £5.93 a kilo. Even Chegworth Valley at Borough Market has organic Bramley apples at £2.50 a kilo. Caveat: harvest season may be having an inordinate impact.
Carnivores too can fare well: chicken legs £1.99, smoked gammon £2.59, and beef mince £3.18 a kilo, going up to £19.78 for rib-eye. Fish prices at Furness Fish Markets (Borough again) range from £6.80 for mackerel, £9.96 cod, Arbroath smokies £16.80 and day boat Dover sole £24.00 (all prices metric).
No Brexit referendum impact so far, so we turned to wholesale Chicago futures prices to see if these are generally depressed. Lean hogs at 55¢ per pound are trading 1.6 (Fibonacci number) standard deviations below their very long-term mean. This is the sort of level that dominated throughout the 1980s, testament to the efficiency of all pig farmers. They could dip further, but moves below 40¢ are unlikely.
Lean hogs
Live cattle prices, which peaked massively at 172¢ per pound two years ago, have now given up almost two-thirds of the rally since 1985's 50¢ low. They are still a lot higher than they were during the 30 years to 2010, demand from a growing middle class in emerging markets the cause, and is unlikely to change for the current generation.
Live cattle
Advances in fish farming keep a rather precarious lid on dwindling fish stocks in many oceans, explaining the massive disparity between asking prices for different species. Pisciculture improvements always a possibility.
Wheat
Wheat futures are depressed indeed, down at levels seen 40 years ago, directly related to advances in seed, fertiliser, pesticide and machinery; this year's drop has been caused by excellent growing conditions on the prairies. The same technological advances apply to soy beans, although prices have not suffered as much as grains because of their extensive use as animal feed. These very long-term trends should continue, although cuts to farm subsidies might have an impact in the short term.
Soybeans
