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Turning on the taps

Turning on the taps
September 28, 2016
Turning on the taps

All three have grand plans to take advantage of historically low interest rates to rebuild roads, modernise energy generation and connect their citizens to the internet, among other initiatives. Invoking totems from the intercontinental railway to the Hoover Dam, Mrs Clinton has promised the "biggest investment in American infrastructure in decades".

In dollar terms that's a $275bn (£212bn) equity injection over five years, which together with loans from a newly created national infrastructure bank would support half a trillion dollars of spending. Not one to be outdone, Mr Trump has promised in public remarks to double the size of his rival's programme, to be funded by infrastructure bonds available to the public. On this side of the Atlantic, the Labour party is also proposing a £500bn investment programme, half of which would come from a national investment bank with £100bn of upfront capital.

 

Spend, multiply

What should we make of this vigorous agreement? Firstly, that monetary policy, the regulation of the financial system by setting the price of money and now bond-buying, is showing its limitations as central banks struggle to normalise interest rates. So fiscal policy, or using government spending to encourage economic output, is coming back into favour, with some economic commentators urging governments to take advantage of low rates to borrow against these projects.

Re-enter the 'fiscal multiplier'; the traditional economic theory that spending on public works would provide not only the initial boost to the enterprises concerned but increasing income for their workers and suppliers, and so on. The multiple is the additional economic output divided by the original government outlay. Some economists argue that this multiple is higher when interest rates are near zero.

 

Autumn windfall

The new UK government has already moved away from former chancellor George Osborne's pledge to achieve a surplus in the public finances by the end of the decade. The question ahead of November's Autumn Statement is just how far his successor, Philip Hammond, will go in fiscal terms in an attempt to drive growth. The Treasury is committed to £100bn-worth of capital investment in infrastructure by 2020-21 as part of the National Infrastructure Delivery Plan, and some commentators are expecting this spending to be beefed up.

But even movement on current logjams such as airport capacity and high-speed rail would contribute much. For example, business lobby group the CBI has said that if the UK does not act to improve its airport capacity it could lose £30bn-worth of emerging market trade by 2030. And it cannot be said that the public and private sectors lack ideas. Ten UK projects including High Speed 2 and Hinkley Point C made this year's KPMG Infrastructure 100 list, handpicked by judges for their scale, complexity and innovation.

 

Still building Britain

Our cover feature from almost exactly a year ago, 'Building Britain' (02/10/15), laid out the company and fund opportunities for investors to play this theme. Engineering group Costain (COST) is one of those at the forefront, with work to do at Hinkley and on the Thames 'super-sewer'. Kier (KIE) is making hay on the highways and stands to benefit from the biggest investment in road-building since the 1970s.

The risk here remains political. The new administration may have political momentum, but still the same-sized parliamentary majority. If the delays over Hinkley expansion were a hint of how the UK's industrial policy would play out, the 'third runway' debate will be a bigger test. Investors wishing to manage this risk may want to look to those companies with international and divisional spread.