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Chart: What does the rising gilt yield curve mean for the FTSE 100?

Chart: What does the rising gilt yield curve mean for the FTSE 100?
October 12, 2016
Chart: What does the rising gilt yield curve mean for the FTSE 100?

The yield has doubled since bottoming in August - admittedly from a paltry 0.5 per cent to just over 1 per cent now - but this matters as it could be a useful signal for those investing in the stock market.

Yields move inversely to prices so when the former rises it can suggest a shift in bond investors' thinking. The pace of the steep rise in the 10-year yield has caught the attention of some market commentators as a portent of the macroeconomic environment investors might soon find themselves in.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com, said: "A steepening yield curve can be a sign that investors think inflation is set to rise. The five-year break-even rate (the difference between the yield on an inflation-linked bond and its standard equivalent) is a good way to gauge UK inflation expectations and has risen above 3 per cent for the first time since 2013.

"Interestingly, the pace of increase has surged since the EU referendum vote in June. This suggests that rising inflation expectations have been directly driven by the sudden decline in the pound."

Rising yields can point to economic growth and, as the economy expands, the central bank raises interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. But with the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the UK's exit from the European Union, rising yields could be bad.

"The Brexit negotiations could take many years, and we have no idea what the UK's post-EU exit economy is going to look like," Ms Brooks added.

"Due to this, a steepening yield curve is a cause for concern - rising inflation caused by a decline in the pound could trigger Bank of England interest rate increases just at the time the UK economy may need the support of the central bank."

The chart shows as the FTSE 100 has peaked, the yield curve has flattened and vice versa, meaning if the yield curve keeps rising, the stock market could be about to suffer.

 

 

"If you are a stock market trader look at the bond market for direction," said Ms Brooks.

"It is currently giving us a warning sign that the FTSE 100 may not be able to sustain its current gains and could be ripe for a sell-off.

"While a steepening yield curve does not have a perfect correlation with the FTSE 100, which makes it difficult to predict the timing of a potential sell-off in UK stocks, it does suggest that UK equity investors should be cautious before adding to long positions at these high levels."