For all of the action on the markets, it has proved a relatively quiet month on Coppock - and a month's haitus in our Coppock coverage has usefully meant we have not been suckered by a flurry of European buy signals, all of which were reversed in short order.
European markets were, like those in London, hit by the UK's shock vote to leave the European Union at the end of June. And, like the UK market, they experienced a strong summer bounceback that continued throughout July and August, helped along by the prospect of more European Central Bank (ECB) stimulus and the delivery of actual stimulus in the UK - an interest rate cut and a £70bn bond-buying programme announced at the start of August.
Bonds versus equities
But, with markets seemingly addicted to such stimulus, the ECB's failure to deliver at its September meeting prompted a sharp sell-off that European markets have yet to recover from, hindered by the banking crisis sweeping the continent. As a retrospective system, Coppock's buy signals would have come just as markets soured.
September has proved a better month for UK and US markets, which remain firmly in Coppock buy territory, as do bonds and commodities. But, as Kate Beioley notes on page 47, there are wider signs that the previously insatiable demand for the sanctuary of government debt may be waning, with a September sell-off pointing to a growing belief that the effectiveness of monetary stimulus may have run its course, and that structural reforms are required instead. We would not be surprised to see this reflected in the Coppock indicators in short order.
Latest Coppock readings
North America | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Latest signal | Latest signal (date) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 Composite | -1.7 | 1.01 | 4.29 | 5.32 | BUY | May-16 |
Dow Jones Industrial Average | -2.55 | 0.51 | 3.83 | 5 | BUY | May-16 |
Nasdaq 100 | 3.84 | 5.33 | 7.96 | 8.48 | CANCEL SELL | Jul-16 |
Nasdaq Composite | -1.41 | -0.05 | 2.59 | 3.63 | BUY | Jul-16 |
S&P/TSX | -17.31 | -13.38 | -8.49 | -4.08 | BUY | Apr-16 |
Asia Pacific, Africa | ||||||
Bangkok SET | -18.68 | -12.47 | -5.93 | -1.66 | BUY | Apr-16 |
FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI | -14.14 | -11.82 | -9.06 | -7.91 | BUY | Feb-16 |
FTSE China B35 | -22.41 | -27.29 | -29.74 | -29.97 | SELL | Jul-15 |
Hang Seng | -35.65 | -33.45 | -28.35 | -23.52 | BUY | Jul-16 |
Korea SE Composite | -5.52 | -4.91 | -3.92 | -3.02 | BUY | Jul-16 |
Indonesia Jakarta Composite | -15.89 | -9.334 | 0.234 | 7.718 | BUY | Mar-16 |
Singapore Straits Times | -33.91 | -31.09 | -27.94 | -25.05 | BUY | Jun-16 |
Taiwan SE Weighted | -19.6 | -15.54 | -10.88 | -5.79 | BUY | May-16 |
Japan Topix | -17.93 | -23.4 | -26.01 | -29.62 | SELL | Aug-15 |
Australia ASX 200 | -17.2 | -13.7 | -9.7 | -7.6 | BUY | Jul-16 |
New ZealandNZ 50 | 20.02 | 25.07 | 30.83 | 32.77 | CANCEL SELL | Mar-16 |
South Africa JSE TOP 40 | 0.1 | 0.32 | 0.56 | -1.12 | CANCEL BUY* | Sep-16 |
India Sensex | -15.78 | -11.68 | -7.14 | -4.3 | BUY | May-16 |
South America | ||||||
Mexico IPC (Bolsa) | 4.22 | 5.9 | 8.31 | 9.41 | CANCEL SELL | Mar-16 |
Brazil Bovespa | -16.5 | -6.59 | 3.18 | 12.32 | BUY | Mar-16 |
MSCI EM Latin America US% | -43.39 | -31.227 | -18.973 | -8.594 | BUY | Jan-16 |
Europe/UK | ||||||
Netherlands AEX | -10.53 | -11.3 | -9.66 | -10.42 | CANCEL BUY* | Sep-16 |
Greece Athex Composite | -58.7 | -54.72 | -51.36 | -50.16 | BUY | Jul-16 |
ATX Austrian Traded | -12.54 | -14.64 | -13.42 | -12.76 | SELL | Jan-16 |
Belgium Bel 20 | -5.22 | -6.88 | -5.96 | -6.98 | CANCEL BUY* | Sep-16 |
Germany Dax 30 | -14.77 | -15.39 | -12.99 | -13.31 | CANCEL BUY* | Sep-16 |
Euro Stoxx 50 | -23.16 | -25.104 | -24.69 | -26.434 | CANCEL BUY* | Sep-16 |
France Cac 40 | -12.99 | -15.18 | -15.4 | -17.6 | SELL | Dec-15 |
FTSE 100 | -15.19 | -11.75 | -6.51 | -2.58 | BUY | May-16 |
FTSE 250 | -0.91 | -2.43 | -1.56 | -0.9 | SELL | Jan-16 |
FTSE All Share | -12.53 | -9.96 | -5.52 | -2.16 | BUY | Jun-16 |
FTSE MIB | -29.65 | -36.22 | -40.47 | -45.72 | SELL | Dec-15 |
Ibex 35 | -37.32 | -39.06 | -38.28 | -38.73 | CANCEL BUY* | Sep-16 |
Ireland SE General (ISEQ) | 27.55 | 19.22 | 15.2 | 9.57 | SELL | Jan-16 |
OMX Stockholm 30 | -24.79 | -26.11 | -24.15 | -23.13 | SELL | Jun-15 |
Oslo Exchange All share | -4.6 | -3.45 | -1.37 | -0.24 | BUY | Jul-16 |
Portugal PSI 20 | -22.84 | -24.98 | -25.73 | -28.63 | CANCEL BUY | Feb-16 |
Russia MICEX Index | 30.56 | 30.8 | 32.09 | 32.35 | CANCEL SELL | Jul-16 |
Swiss Market Index | -17.88 | -19.18 | -18.41 | -19.68 | CANCEL BUY* | Sep-16 |
Fixed income | ||||||
Barclays US Aggregate Bond | 0.84 | 1.945 | 2.764 | 3.335 | BUY | Apr-16 |
US 10y Treasury | 4.47 | 6.15 | 7.383 | 8.262 | CANCEL SELL | Apr-16 |
UK 10y Treasury | 7.23 | 10.347 | 13.932 | 16.712 | CANCEL SELL | May-16 |
Japan 10y Treasury | 9.45 | 10.278 | 10.545 | 10.664 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-16 |
Germany 10y Treasury | 6.68 | 8.646 | 10.402 | 11.783 | CANCEL SELL | May-16 |
FT All Govt | 4.39 | 7.544 | 11.407 | 13.859 | CANCEL SELL | May-16 |
IBOXX Liquid £ Corp Long-dated | -5.69 | -0.566 | 6.57 | 11.428 | BUY | May-16 |
FTSE British Govt index linked all mats | 7.28 | 10.53 | 18.14 | 24.32 | CANCEL SELL | Jun-16 |
Commodities (S&P Goldman Sachs Total Return indices) | ||||||
Agriculture | -15.71 | -12.68 | -14.9 | -13.66 | BUY* | Sep-16 |
Industrial Metals | -38.21 | -32.37 | -27.35 | -19.58 | BUY | Feb-16 |
Livestock | -29.89 | -31.65 | -31.81 | -35.7 | CANCEL BUY | Jul-16 |
Precious Metals | 3.33 | 10.6 | 15.86 | 21.44 | BUY | Jan-16 |
Gold Bullion | 4.93 | 11.45 | 16.42 | 21.92 | BUY | Jan-16 |
Crude Oil | -87.15 | -86.41 | -83.51 | -77.06 | BUY | Feb-16 |
*New signals |