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Next week's economics: 31 Oct - 4 Nov

Next week's economics: 31 Oct - 4 Nov
October 26, 2016
Next week's economics: 31 Oct - 4 Nov

In China, purchasing managers could report that manufacturing growth has hit a two-year high. In the US, they should say that output growth is also picking and is certainly stronger than it was earlier this year, while official figures on Friday should show a rise of around 200,000 in non-farm payrolls. In the eurozone, purchasing managers' reports should confirm flash estimates of faster growth in manufacturing. And although official Japanese numbers might show that industrial production fell in September, this would still leave output up by around 1 per cent quarter on quarter.

The UK is participating in this. Purchasing managers could report on Tuesday that manufacturing output is growing at its fastest rate since mid-2014.

However, this might not mean that the whole economy is doing well. In the services sector, UK purchasing managers might report only moderate growth. And while construction purchasing managers should report stronger activity than in the immediate aftermath of June's referendum, spending is likely to be lower than it was in the winter. This would be consistent with uncertainty about Brexit holding down spending on long-lasting assets such as buildings.

On Thursday, we'll get the Bank of England's latest Inflation Report. This might show less gloom about economic growth than back in August, due in part to the pick-up in purchasing managers' indices, but also a higher inflation forecast as a result of the weaker pound. However, Mark Carney is likely to say that the rise in inflation will be only temporary and so the Bank won't respond to it by raising interest rates.

However, rising inflation is not due merely to the weak pound, nor is it confined to the UK. Monday's figures could show a rise in eurozone inflation as last year's oil price falls drop out of the data - although 'core' inflation will be stuck around 0.8 per cent. And in the US, Friday's figures could show that wage growth has been steadily rising for the last 12 months: it is partly for this reason that the Fed will probably signal on Wednesday an intention to raise interest rates in December.

Thursday will see some important but under-reported numbers. Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics will say that US productivity rose a little in the third quarter, its numbers will show a marked long-term slowdown. For example, productivity has grown by only 0.6 per cent per year in the last five years, compared with 2 per cent annual growth in the 30 years before the 2008 crisis. This is strong evidence of a downturn in trend growth, which should worry equity investors.