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Opinion

Next week's economics: 12-16 Dec

Next week's economics: 12-16 Dec
December 8, 2016
Next week's economics: 12-16 Dec

This move will be part of a process of returning interest rates to more normal levels. However, the Fed is likely to stress that this process will be a slow one and that future rises will be small and slow.

Figures in the week will show why. Although Wednesday's numbers could show a slight rise in retail sales last month after a strong October, they could also show that industrial production has barely grown at all in recent months - a picture likely to be corroborated by the New York Fed's survey of manufacturing in its region.

Nor is there a pressing inflation problem. Thursday's consumer price data are likely to show that while core inflation (the rate excluding food and energy) is slightly higher than a year ago at 2.3 per cent, it has barely moved in the past few months.

Where inflation is rising, though, is in the UK. Tuesday's figures could show that CPI inflation has risen to around 1.2 per cent, its highest rate since October 2014. This will be due in part to higher import prices, and in part to a petrol price fall last November dropping out of the data.

The effect of sterling's fall will be more obvious in producer prices, though. Input price inflation could rise to almost 15 per cent, its highest rate since 2011. And output price inflation could reach 2.7 per cent, its highest since 2012. These rises might well feed into consumer prices soon.

Wednesday's figures, however, could show that wage growth is not rising so much, being stuck around 2.4 per cent. This of course implies a drop in real wage growth, the impact of which could be evident in Thursday's retail sales numbers, which might post a fall in November, albeit after a big rise in October.

The question is: why is wage growth so low? One possibility is simply that many wage contracts were set before sterling fell in June, and so haven't yet adjusted to higher expected prices. As these are renegotiated, wages might edge up. Wednesday's figures could show one reason to expect this: they'll show that unemployment has dropped below 1.6m, suggesting that the labour market is tightening - although there are also some 2.2m people out of the labour-force who want to work.

In the eurozone, we should see a pick-up in the ZEW survey of financial professionals' optimism about the German economy, and a rise in industrial production in the region after a fall in September. Both would be consistent with moderate growth in the region.