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Opinion

Next week's economics: 23-27 Jan

Next week's economics: 23-27 Jan
January 19, 2017
Next week's economics: 23-27 Jan

Better still, there are reasons to suspect the growth will continue into this year. For one thing, GDP was depressed in the fourth quarter by shutdowns of North Sea oil rigs for maintenance work. Output should recover as they come back on stream. What's more, Thursday's survey by the CBI should show that retail sales stayed strong in January - albeit not quite as much as in recent months.

We should also see some good news in Wednesday's CBI survey of manufacturing. This should show that business confidence, output expectations and export orders are all doing well. Investment intentions, however, might be subdued and companies might also report that higher costs are squeezing profit margins.

One reason for the economy's good health is that our biggest export markets are doing well. Germany's Ifo survey on Monday should show that the economy is growing at its fastest rate since 2011. And purchasing managers' flash surveys the following day should show that a similar thing is true for the eurozone as a whole.

This growth is being helped by the fact that banks are in better shape in the region. The ECB is likely to report on Friday that lending to the private sector continues to accelerate, and is up by 2.5 per cent in the last 12 months.

The US is also doing well. The BEA's first estimate of GDP should show annualised growth of over 2 per cent in the fourth quarter; although less than the third-quarter's 3.5 per cent expansion, this would still be respectable. And durable goods orders should post a bounceback in December, having been depressed in November by a lack of new orders for aircraft.

This recovery, however, is not yet greatly helping the public finances. Tuesday's figures should show that the government borrowed around £65bn between April and December, which would be consistent with the OBR's forecast of a £68.2bn deficit for 2016-17 as a whole. This would be a sign that the global savings glut (which by identity is the counterpart of government borrowing) is still with us.