Over the past 30 years we've found 25 occasions when the FTSE 100 has clocked up seven or more consecutive days of gains.
These wining streaks seem to have become a bit more frequent over time and perhaps it could be argued the performance following on from such runs has become a little less extreme.
However, the most striking thing about these 25 winning-streaks is that on average there seems to be very little difference between the returns from the index that followed over three months and a year than there was on any other day of the 30 years we've looked at. It seems the best thing to do after a big FTSE 100 winning streak may be to simply forget it ever happened.
We think the numbers speak for themselves:
Three-month performance | ||
---|---|---|
Any day | After seven-plus day run | |
Mean average performance | 1.5% | 1.5% |
Median average performance | 2.3% | 2.3% |
Standard deviation* | 7.8 | 6.1 |
One-year performance | ||
---|---|---|
Any day | After seven-plus day run | |
Mean average performance | 6.0% | 7.0% |
Median average performance | 7.9% | 6.5% |
Standard deviation* | 15.4 | 14.3 |
*The standard deviation is a measure of how closely results are clustered around the average with about 70 per cent of results found within one standard deviation of the average and 95 per cent found within two standard deviations.
Source: Thomson Datastream
Returns following seven-plus day winning streaks
Last day of winning streak | Days in winning streak | Performance during winning streak | Three-month FTSE 100 performance after streak | One-year FTSE 100 performance after streak |
---|---|---|---|---|
8/08/96 | 7 | 2.9% | 2.6% | 32.0% |
26/12/96 | 1 | 1.8% | 5.1% | 22.5% |
24/04/97 | 8 | 2.4% | 10.8% | 33.6% |
13/05/97 | 11 | 6.9% | 6.7% | 27.3% |
7/04/99 | 8 | 6.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% |
9/06/99 | 8 | 3.6% | -3.0% | 1.5% |
11/11/99 | 7 | 4.3% | -5.5% | -4.2% |
8/11/01 | 7 | 4.7% | -2.8% | -23.6% |
21/03/03 | 7 | 10.7% | 5.9% | 12.2% |
5/01/04 | 11 | 3.7% | -0.7% | 6.5% |
27/08/04 | 7 | 2.9% | 5.8% | 16.4% |
30/12/04 | 7 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 16.6% |
6/07/05 | 7 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 12.6% |
27/07/09 | 11 | 9.1% | 13.4% | 17.0% |
17/06/10 | 7 | 3.3% | 4.8% | 8.8% |
6/09/10 | 7 | 5.5% | 6.1% | -5.2% |
5/07/11 | 8 | 5.7% | -15.3% | -5.5% |
15/05/13 | 10 | 3.8% | -3.1% | 2.2% |
22/10/13 | 9 | 4.1% | 2.0% | -4.4% |
24/02/14 | 7 | 3.0% | -0.7% | 1.2% |
29/12/14 | 8 | 4.8% | 3.9% | -4.8% |
26/01/15 | 8 | 5.4% | 3.7% | -13.7% |
9/10/15 | 8 | 5.8% | -8.5% | 10.6% |
15/08/16 | 8 | 3.0% | -2.1% | na |
13/01/17 | 14 | 3.9% | na | na |
Source: Thomson Datastream