If official figures are consistent with last week's preliminary GDP estimate (which is not guaranteed) they'll show that both manufacturing and construction output rose strongly in December, albeit after a lacklustre autumn. And the NIESR is likely to estimate that real GDP rose in January, to leave it around 0.7 per cent higher in the past three months than the previous three.
This growth is likely to have been aided by a rise in net exports. Friday's figures should show a decline in the trade gap in Q4, due in part to export volumes rising faster than import volumes.
One reason for this is that our main trading partner, the euro area, is doing well. Official German figures should show that industrial production rose slightly in December, to leave it around 0.9 per cent higher in the fourth quarter than the third. And figures from France and Italy should show that while December wasn't a great month, industrial output in Q4 as a whole was well up on Q3's level.
There might, however, be a slight warning in these numbers. Trade figures are likely to show that export prices have risen faster than import prices since sterling fell in June. This suggests that export volumes won't enjoy a big rise because of sterling's depreciation simply because prices of UK exports in foreign currency haven't fallen much, which means foreigners won't buy much more. The benefit of sterling's fall will be seen in exporters' better profit margins rather than in much higher volumes.
We'll also get news next week about house prices. Both the Halifax and the RICS are likely to agree that prices are rising in most of the country - London being an exception - albeit at a slower rate than in the spring. And both are likely to say this is because a lack of supply is squeezing prices up by more than a lack of affordability is holding them down. This is an unhealthy form of inflation.
