This is indeed what could happen by 2030, according to a report compiled by e-commerce delivery specialist ParcelHero. And the data used to establish the trend of declining activity makes sober reading. According to the Centre for Retail Research, there were 600,000 stores in the UK in 1950. By 2012 this had fallen to 290,000 and is projected to decline further to 220,000 by 2020. If this trend continues, then by 2030 there will be just 120,000 shops on the high street. The death sentence will be delivered by e-commerce, whereby customers elect to order goods over the internet and have them delivered. Now, anyone who has taken a day off work to wait in for a delivery that never arrives will understandably be sceptical. But delivery systems are becoming more sophisticated, as with Amazon Prime Now, which enables customers in London signed up for the service to receive delivery within one hour. In one move, it is now quicker to shop without leaving the house. In fact, at the current rate of growth, the internet will account for 40 per cent of retail sales by 2030, compared with around 17 per cent now.
There are other reasons why the existence of shops in the high street has come under pressure. Supermarkets, for example, operate on a low-margin/high-turnover business model, and there are more than 10,000 major grocery chain outlets in high streets. Recent trading has resulted in a boost sponsored by an increase in Christmas spending, but this seems unlikely to last. Outlets such as Tesco (TSCO) have reacted by boosting their online sales; Tesco is now second only to Amazon in terms of sales. But this still leaves the cost of maintaining the bricks and mortar in the physical stores. And the pressure is unlikely to go away. According to research and training charity IFD, in the next two years sales from convenience stores, discounters and the internet will overtake superstores and hypermarkets for the first time. Put another way, sales from superstores and hypermarkets are forecast to fall by 4 per cent at a time when overall sales are expected to grow by 16 per cent.
High-street banks are becoming something of a rarity, too; some no longer have a single bank branch following the closure of 1,700 outlets over the past five years. Once again, the internet has won by allowing customers to conduct their financial affairs from the comfort of their own home or on the move. Bad luck if you're without a computer or wanting to pay in that cheque you received at Christmas from one of your aunties. Specialised outlets such as toyshops, bookshops and traditional tobacconists have succumbed either to internet buying or discounted prices at the supermarket.
One thing that all shops have had to deal with is the inexorable increase in business rates. These have risen twice as fast as sales, a rate, which, in the long run, makes it unsustainable to trade at a profit.
Are there any winners? Yes; the internet has its limitations, so it may not come as too much of a surprise to know that there are more nail salons than Chinese restaurants on the high street. The internet can't provide you with a candlelit evening meal in romantic surroundings, and you can't get an internet haircut. The charity shop is another growth sector, while pawnbrokers tend to appear and disappear much in line with fluctuations in the economy.
But there has to be a better, all-encompassing business plan that will revive high streets from being ghost towns after the shops have shut. Many local authorities have attempted to make high streets more user-friendly by closing off the main drag to traffic. This hasn't worked because car parking facilities are not always up to the mark, and shoppers have to use their legs. Just as King Canute gave up a losing battle, it might be time to consider changing the broad concept of what actually should be in a high street. The obvious change would be to convert (or demolish) shops to make way for more housing. There will always be niche outlets such as quality butchers and convenience stores, and there will be room to accommodate part of the growing micro pub revival. Specialist stores will also be able to act as parcel locker locations for shopping deliveries.
Making the change won't happen overnight, if it happens at all. It is easier now to achieve planning consent for change of use, but it will remain a trial unless local authorities embrace the need for change. After all, collecting residential rates is preferable to presiding over a street full of empty shops.
