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GKN lifted higher by aerospace division

After a strong performance in civil aviation, the engineering group is in line to benefit from an expected rise in Pentagon spending
March 1, 2017

GKN (GKN) exited last year in a confident mood, guiding for 2017 organic sales growth in excess of the market average, driven, in part, by the $7bn (£5.6bn) in new and replacement work contracts for the aerospace division. Reported operating profit was up 4 per cent to £335m, although it was held in check by acquisition-related restructuring charges. The group's focus on capital discipline saw another £30m trimmed off its cost base, while the reduction in free cash flow - still a healthy £201m - was largely due to a hefty prepayment booked in the corresponding period in 2015.

IC TIP: Buy at 363p

GKN aerospace reported sales of £3.4bn through last year, a 37 per cent increase year on year, including a £769m contribution from Dutch aircraft manufacturer Fokker Technologies in the first full year of ownership. There were concerns that a slowdown in the production of wide-body jets would impact performance, but both Airbus and Boeing have stepped up production of their next-generation models. The industry outlook on the civil aviation market is positive through to the end of next year, so shareholders can realistically expect further progress. And although organic sales growth in commercial aerospace was partly offset by a decline in military work, GKN's chief executive, Nigel Stein, envisages "increased activity" in that segment through 2017.

The improvement in sales of auto parts was supported by a strengthening performance in Europe, where the group gained market share through demand from the likes of Fiat Chrysler, Volvo and Daimler. Global light vehicle production was on the rise at GKN's driveline division, which looks well placed to benefit from the accelerated rollout of drive-train systems for hybrid and electric vehicles. By contrast, organic sales pulled back at the group's land systems unit as a consequence of challenging agricultural and construction equipment markets. This unit has now been split into other divisions in a restructuring plan announced earlier this year.

Broker Numis expects adjusted pre-tax profit of £740m in 2017, giving EPS of 34.1p, compared with £641m and 31.0p in 2016.

GKN (GKN)
ORD PRICE:363.2pMARKET VALUE:£6.23bn
TOUCH:363.2-363.4p12-MONTH HIGH:364pLOW: 249p
DIVIDEND YIELD:2.4%PE RATIO:26
NET ASSET VALUE:124p*NET DEBT:33%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20126.5156829.37.2
20137.1448424.27.9
20146.9822110.38.4
20157.2324511.88.7
20168.8229214.18.85
% change+22+19+19+2

Ex-div: 6 Apr

Payment: 17 May

*Includes intangible assets of £1.91bn, or 111p a share