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Gym Group: at the tough end of the cycle?

Gym Group is clearly in growth mode - but how long will it last?
March 15, 2017

As the nation hits the treadmill, low-cost fitness operator Gym Group (GYM) is reaping the benefits. The company finished last year with 448,000 members, which was up by nearly a fifth compared with the year before. This helped push group revenues up by 23 per cent and cash profits by more than a third to £22.7m. This, along with the absence of IPO-related expenses from 2015, helped move the company back into the black at the pre-tax profit level.

IC TIP: Sell at 184p

Last year the group added 15 new gyms to its estate, bringing the total number to 89. Due to the late stage timing of these openings, net debt doubled between the half-year and full-year stage. Timing issues also had a slight impact on new site margins, with £3.8m of cash profits earned from new sites opened in 2015 and 2016, compared with £4.5m last year. However, adjusted cash profits derived from what the group calls its "mature" estate (sites that have been open for at least two years) grew 0.8 per cent to £476,000 per site.

Analysts at Peel Hunt expect pre-tax profits of £12.6m for the year ending December 2017, giving EPS of 7.5p, compared with £8.7m and 5.6p in 2016.

GYM GROUP (GYM)
ORD PRICE:184pMARKET VALUE:£236m
TOUCH:182-185p12-MONTH HIGH:280pLOW: 155p
DIVIDEND YIELD:0.5%PE RATIO:41
NET ASSET VALUE:89p*NET DEBT:5%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2012**22.3-1.1-2.2nil
2013**35.7-9.0-16.6nil
201445.5-9.4-18.0nil
201560.0-12.4-19.0nil
201673.56.94.51.0
% change+23---

Ex-div: 25 May

Payment: 16 Jun

*Includes intangible assets of £48.7m, or 38p a share

**Pre-IPO figures