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Wetherspoon's (stemmed) pint glass is half empty

Wetherspoon's (stemmed) pint glass is half empty
March 16, 2017
Wetherspoon's (stemmed) pint glass is half empty

It's easy to be snooty about 'Spoons, but more recently it has become the fashion to laud the company for its philosophy of value and simplicity. In this narrative, Wetherspoon's chairman Tim Martin was bringing to life the vision of George Orwell in his 1946 article for London's Evening Standard newspaper, describing The Moon Under Water, his idealised pub: close to a bus stop, quiet enough to talk, with a garden at the back. The use of historic buildings has encouraged this romantic view of the company: our local 'Spoons alternative in Tunbridge Wells is housed in the former Opera House.

A look at the group's turnover over the past decade suggest this prose poetry is indeed in motion, near doubling to £1.6bn in its 2016 financial year, on the back of an expanding estate. The first half of the 2017 financial year gave further reasons to raise a glass: like-for-like sales up 3.3 per cent on the back of a strong result in food, which now delivers more than a third of turnover.

It is indeed making a success of breakfast: a consumer survey presented by the group put 'Spoons as the fourth most visited brand for your morning grub, behind McDonald's, Whitbread's (WTB) Costa Coffee and Greggs (GRG). What's more, staff retention is at record levels, with the average manager staying for 11 years. So Mr Martin has plenty to be proud of. The chain's founder has also used it as a platform for his views - deploying his beermats against the Labour government's policy of joining the euro, and again in last year's referendum campaign, despite the potential challenges from labour controls and a weaker pound.

Below the top line, things are shakier, as you can read in our analysis of the results in this week's issue. The level of costs being piled on the business - and all bricks-and-mortar retailers - is ever rising, from wages to rates to other levies, and that's ignoring sterling's fall. The company is even having to invest in racks to hold the stemmed glasses preferred by the 'premium' punter.

Getting bigger is getting tougher. Analysts expect the size of the estate to reduce for the second straight year, and costs are eating a little more into revenue: repairs, depreciation and impairment accounted for 8.2 per cent of turnover in the first half, against 8.0 per cent in 2016, and 7.7 per cent five years earlier. Free cash flow per share is creeping in the wrong direction, and the group's net debt, stands at 3.46 times its cash profit, against an average of 2.97 since 2002. Its board sees debt at between zero and two times cash profits as a "a sensible long-term benchmark". The group is quick to stress it remains well within its banking covenants, but the wiggle room looks tight.

Returning to Orwell, in Wetherspoon's version of events the comparison was put to Mr Martin - by a journalist, of all people - after he had already opened seven pubs in the capital. And the great essayist in his first paragraph describes his idealised watering hole as "on a side-street, and drunks and rowdies never seem to find their way there, even on Saturday nights". That's perhaps more of a stretch. There's a few good stories to be spun around JD Wetherspoon; its challenges are more prosaic.