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Opinion

Fed manages to surprise

Fed manages to surprise
March 16, 2017
Fed manages to surprise

DAX 30

This IG chart has the Dax rallying early this morning to a new high for this year. This has also put the MACD into bullish territory. Let’s see what happens with Angela Merkel and Donald Trump at the White House tomorrow.

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

POSITION TAKER: Square.

FTSE 100

Like the Dax the MACD has turned bullish as the index trades up to a new record high. Note that the Treasury Select Committee has asked the Financial Conduct Authority to look into potential data leaks from the Office for National Statistics which have led to suspect market moves.

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

POSITION TAKER: Square.

S&P 500

Rallying towards the record high set earlier this month easing the bearish reading on the MACD.

SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

POSITION TAKER: Square.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Sure enough, what started off as a slightly wonky morning star three candle pattern ended up as a very crooked one. If cable can do this in the face of a call for another Scottish referendum plus a Fed rate rise, one can see that positioning is still extremely negative towards sterling and it is still cheap. The commodity channel index is close to zero and a break above here should increase bullish pressure.

SHORT TERM TRADER: Small long at 1.2230; stop below 1.2150. Target 1.2500-1.2530.

POSITION TAKER: Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

Classic! The euro soars to it best level in weeks as the Fed delivers its long anticipated rate rise. So much for interest rate differentials determining FX rates. Back in your box, as they say in dealing rooms.

SHORT TERM TRADER: Took profits on my long position this morning and feeling rather smug. When that happens, it’s time to be careful.

POSITION TAKER: Square.

GOLD

Knee-jerk reaction to US dollar weakness following the much anticipated rate rise. Momentum is still negative and we shall be watching for signs of topping again ahead of February’s high.

SHORT TERM TRADER: Stopped out of my short position at a profit. Now square.

POSITION TAKER: Short at 1205; stop above 1240. Target 1160.

MORE FROM NICOLE ELLIOTT...

Nicole Elliott is a longstanding Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and provides the IC's trading coverage. She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker and author of several books on charting.

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