In the US, the Federal Reserve is expected to report that industrial production rose slightly in March. This would leave output around 0.4 per cent upon in the first quarter compared with the fourth. Such good health should be corroborated by surveys from the New York and Philadelphia Feds, which are likely to show that manufacturers in their regions are seeing increases in output which they expect to continue.
We'll also see strength in the eurozone. Flash purchasing managers' surveys could show that both manufacturing and services sectors are expanding at the fastest rate since 2011.
There might, though, be a difference between the two regions in the inflation picture. Whereas those Fed surveys might find signs of increasing price pressures, official eurozone data will show a quieter picture. They are expected to confirm that overall consumer price inflation fell in March thanks to lower oil prices, while the core rate (which excludes food and energy) has been flat for months at just under 1 per cent. This is why US interest rates are expected to rise this year while eurozone ones are not.
In the UK, however, we might have a problem: retail sales. Last month, these rose after falling sharply in December and January. Although economists expect them to be more or less flat in March, this would still leave sales volumes around 1 per cent down in Q1 - the biggest quarterly drop since 2010. With real wages falling and inflation rising, there's no good reason to expect a sustained recovery in sales: if anything, the opposite. The question for investors is a tricky one: are retailing stocks, many of which have done badly recently, now so cheap as to be fully pricing in this perhaps unpleasant outlook?
One other thing to watch for will be US capital flows figures on Monday. These could show that in recent months foreigners have become net buyers of US shares. If this continues, it would be a worry, as such buying has in the past predicted falling prices, simply because positive sentiment does not last for long.
