I say this for a simple reason: consumer spending should at least in part be forward-looking, so higher spending should be a harbinger of better times. You don't need to believe highfalutin theories of rational expectations to believe this (and nor should you). Common sense tells us that if we're worried about our job we'll rein in our spending even if our current income and wealth are high, whereas if we expect a pay rise we might spend a little more.
Of course, any individual consumer taken at random might be mistaken or irrational. But across millions of households these errors should mostly cancel out, unless peer effects are very strong.
Although the facts show that spending isn't entirely forward-looking - current conditions also matter - they suggest that it is partly so. One simple but useful measure here is the ratio of retail sales to house prices. This is significantly correlated with subsequent annual changes in both retail sales volumes and real house prices; since the ONS's current data began in 1996, the correlations have been 0.28 and 0.48, respectively, in monthly data.
For example, the ratio was high in the late 1990s, after which both spending and house prices rose strongly. But it troughed in late 2007, which led to falls in both. Its recovery in 2012 then led to good rises in spending and house prices. But it then fell back in early 2016, and since then house prices and retail sales have slowed.
It's in this context that the recent pick-up in retail sales should cheer us a little. Although sales are volatile from month to month, and the volume of them is still below October's levels, they have recently risen relative to house prices: Nationwide data show that these have fallen in nominal terms in the past two months. Thanks to this, the ratio of sales to house prices last month was 4.4 per cent higher than a year ago. This suggests that prospects for retail sales and house prices have improved since then.
This isn't to say they are glowingly bright. This ratio is still well below its post-1996 average, which points to below-average rises in both sales and house prices over the next 12 months - and in fact to a greater than one-in-three chance of the latter falling in real terms. But prospects don't seem quite as bad as a few months ago.
This should remind us of other reasons for moderate optimism. Employment growth should sustain real incomes; the rise in inflation might be partly only temporary; and a tighter labour market should at least prevent real wages falling very much. Also, the weak pound and stronger eurozone economies should boost domestic spending by attracting tourists and encouraging staycations; net tourism could easily add almost half a percentage point to consumer spending growth this year.
With many retailing and leisure stocks still far below last year's highs and on nice yields, those investors who are looking to such consumer-oriented stocks for a few bargains might, therefore, not be entirely mistaken.
