The quarterly reshuffle date for my momentum screen this time around (15 June) happened to fall very close to the date of our recent general election (8 June). Interested to see what impact the election would have on the results of the screen, I checked the momentum performance figures and stock selections the day before the UK went to the ballot box. At 10pm on election night, once voting was finished and the exit polls were out, it looked as though this could prove an extremely interesting experiment given the 'shock' nature of the unfolding result. However, the most interesting thing about the performance of the screen and the stock selection is that both remained largely unchanged. Perhaps this suggests the market had quietly been as underwhelmed by the prospect of a bigger majority for Theresa May's government as the electorate proved to be? More saliently, it's a reminder of how hard it is to second-guess markets.
For the momentum screen, the past three months have really not stood out. The longs picked by the screen in mid-March have modestly outperformed the market, while the shorts have performed more or less in line.
| LONGS | SHORTS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Total Return (15 Mar 2017 - 12 Jun 2017) | Name | Total Return (15 Mar 2017 - 12 Jun 2017) |
| Hikma Pharmaceuticals | -29% | Next | 9.6% |
| Fresnillo | 16% | Pearson | 9.3% |
| Unilever | 6.3% | Dixons Carphone | 3.8% |
| Randgold Resources | 8.5% | Royal Mail | 7.0% |
| International Consolidated Airlines | 4.6% | BT Group | -10% |
| Burberry | -2.1% | Tesco | -3.7% |
| Taylor Wimpey | -6.3% | Marks and Spencer | 9.5% |
| Mondi | 6.9% | WPP | -1.7% |
| Smurfit Kappa | 2.4% | Centrica | -8.9% |
| Persimmon | 15% | BP | 3.5% |
| LONGS | 2.3% | SHORTS | 1.8% |
| FTSE 100 | 1.8% | FTSE 100 | 1.8% |