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Opinion

Mayday, Mayday

Mayday, Mayday
June 16, 2017
Mayday, Mayday

The Corbyn iceberg might have been pushed into position by the country's peeved youth, but it was Theresa May who steered right into its path. Mrs May's calamitous campaign will serve as a useful case study in political party HQs and on politics curriculums for many years to come, as will Labour's dramatic late surge in popularity under a far left leadership that had been roundly dismissed as unelectable.

A quick summary of the factors behind the election result has to include the youth vote, hard Brexit, austerity, poorly chosen, out-of-touch and badly explained policies, and wrongly assuming that people would reject the sky-high cost of Labour giveaways and big promises on housing, fees and the NHS.

Whatever the reasons, they are what they are. Far more important for investors is what it all means and where this unfolding chapter of history will take us.

For a start, there's the shifting ground that is Brexit. Mrs May stood under a "No deal better than a bad deal" banner, an approach clearly not endorsed by the electorate. When talks start next week, it won't be, as she hoped, with the will of the nation behind her and its absolute backing if she decides to leave, rather than take, what is on offer. A different approach to Brexit may be adopted following the election kicking, with Brexit champion Michael Gove suggesting that cross-party consensus is necessary. For many Leavers and Remainers alike, who are uneasy about the hard Brexit option and would like to see the economy, not immigration, take priority in the exit talks, that would be a relief. Others are scornful of a soft Brexit, or a Brexit for Business, which would involve concessions on the very things that drove them to vote leave. The risk of a hard Brexit remains with all that entails.

Increased political uncertainty is another factor at play now and new economic risks are emerging. We have a propped-up government and, like propped-up walls, they are inevitably prone to sudden collapse. The likelihood of a Labour government with high spending, high tax, renationalisation policies and employee-friendly legislation ready and waiting to be delivered is elevated. Some readers have confessed that the prospect of the current Labour party forming a government "scares the living daylights" out of them, although Chris Dillow argues it may not be as bad as all that (see What if Labour Wins?).

No one can predict what will happen going forward, so as we have said so many times in these pages, you'd be better spending the time dwelling on the quality of the companies you hold and checking how diversified you are by asset, sector and geography - remember there's a world of companies out there that are not affected in the least by the clouds over this island. Remember, too, that volatility brings opportunities. Two of our columnists this week address some of these issues: John Rosier on page 26 is considering increasing his overseas exposure and adding to faster-growing regions of the world, while going through his holdings that are dependent on the health of the UK economy with a fine tooth comb. And Mr Bearbull on page 17 outlines his reasons for shunning the euro.