One is that the weakness we're seeing now is partly one-off. Back in the autumn, shoppers stocked up on durable goods in anticipation of them rising in price because of sterling's fall. The counterpart of that is that sales are now weak. But this doesn't mean they'll fall much from here on.
Also, the biggest problem for consumers now - falling real wages - might not last long. Inflation should start to fall later this year simply because the one-off rise in prices caused by sterling's devaluation should drop out of the data. This alone should help retail sales simply because rising inflation usually causes spending to fall relative to incomes. Better still, it might be accompanied by rising nominal wages simply as a result of the tighter labour market: employment, remember, is still growing.
Economic policy might also help. The general election result has told the government that voters are "tired of austerity", to use the phrase of Nick Timothy, the Prime Minister's former chief of staff. A lifting of the cap on public sector pay rises or of the freeze on working tax credits would boost incomes and spending.
These aren't my own idiosyncratic hopes. They are shared by households. A survey by GfK next week is expected to show that consumer confidence has been steady for months at a historically high level, while Bank of England data should show that consumer credit is growing by more than 10 per cent year on year. Both are signs that households are looking through current tough times to better ones ahead.
None of this, however, is to say the good times will soon return for retailers. One problem is that the household savings ratio hit a record low at the end of last year. That's probably unsustainable, which means that spending could remain weak even if real incomes rise - although next week's numbers could show that savings did recover a little in the first quarter. Also, inflation might not fall back very far; even if this doesn't squeeze real wages it'll encourage more savings. And of course the ongoing stagnation in labour productivity will hold down real wage growth.
On balance, though, the outlook for retailing probably isn't as bad as current news would suggest.
I don't think, though, that this means we should start looking for bargains among retail shares. The old saying 'never try to catch a falling knife' is a cliché because it's so often true. Betting against negative momentum is a dangerous game.
