Many pundits failed to foresee the election result because they cleaved too strongly to conventional ideas - such as that elections are won from the centre ground - and failed to appreciate sufficiently the ground truth that young people would turn out to vote in droves and that workers were cheesed off by years of stagnant real wages.
Investors face the same problem as political pundits. To take just two recent examples, the ground truth was that British Airways' IT systems were inadequate and that customers were shunning DFS. A grasp of these ground truths would have saved us money.