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Fixed-odds wizard: week 35

Created:
30 September 2008
Written by:
Matt Shaw

After an adrenaline-fuelled weekend away, I was feeling as fresh as a daisy sitting back at my desk this Monday morning. As I switched the TV on, I was greeted with news of the government's acquisition of Bradford & Bingley. It wasn't quite another Northern Rock, as the state got its act together quickly this time, flogging off part of B&B's business to Santander. But no cheers from investors, as the market was well down through the day.

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What with the huge bailout of the financial system by the US government, a fall in the US dollar was always looking likely. And that, in turn, will have an effect in the commodities market. Gold could be a big winner. But for stocks, the only way is down, just for now.

As a result, I've no open positions on equities right now. However, I am playing the currency markets. I am in the money on my sterling/dollar trade, with a lovely profit likely on Tuesday. I have 3 cents of margin for my low barrier, which was set at $1.772. I also have a €/US$ trade open with clients, and that is a range trade. The high barrier is set at $1.508 and the low barrier is set around $1.395. The best I can hope for is for the bailout plan to come off, and the $ to give up some ground to the pound and euro, although not too much!

I am looking to place two trades this week. One would be shorting the Dow, if I saw a reaction rally to the bailout plan and possibly another range trade on the currency markets. With regard to the dollar, it will remain under pressure as global markets are flooded with greenbacks. On the other hand, though, the UK and European Central Banks will soon have to join the interest-rate slashing spree to combat the looming recession. That could help the US dollar recover some ground.

After I bag some profits, I will be trading again by Wednesday, as long as I see what I'm hoping for in the US bailout. I wish you the very best if you are trading right now.


MORE FROM THE FIXED-ODDS WIZARD...

Read all Matt Shaw's columns...

Or see Investors Chronicle's new, FREE, investment guide to fixed-odds betting.

If you have any queries about fixed-odds, or trading the indices in general, I'd love to hear from you. Please e-mail me on: matt@fixedoddssuccess.com.

Or visit my own website at www.fixedoddssuccess.com


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