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Inflation fears sober expectations at Fuller's

Created:
9 June 2008
Written by:
Nathalie Olof-Ors

Fuller Smith & Turner posted a sharp decline in earnings, but the pub operator performed far better than the headline figures suggests. Comparisons were distorted by the disposal of two of its largest hotels, which generated an exceptional profit of £20.1m the previous year. Ignoring this, underlying profits increased by 4 per cent, to £23m.

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Thanks to its upmarket position, the group, which manages more pubs in the City than any of its competitors, has weathered the challenges of the smoking ban relatively well. Like-for like sales increased by 3.6 per cent at Fuller's Inns thanks to strong food sales and higher revenue per room in its retained business hotel.

And its brewing division performed well, too. Revenue rose by 3 per cent to £60.3m in this division as the owner of London Pride gained market share in new countries such as Russia and Japan.

Nevertheless, for the coming year the group flagged unprecedented inflationary pressures as pubs face higher utility and food bills while the higher cost of barley and glass could hit the beer business. The group intends to mitigate this through a mix of price increases and efficiency gains.

Broker KBC Peel Hunt reduced 2009 full-year EPS forecasts by 6 per cent to 29.1p (28.8p in 2008).

Fuller Smith & Turner (FSTA)

'A' ORD PRICE: 540p MARKET VALUE: £174m
'A' TOUCH: 540-537p 12-MONTH HIGH: 768p LOW: 500p
DIVIDEND YIELD: 2% PE RATIO: 16
NET ASSET VALUE: 354p* NET DEBT: 49%

Year to 29 Mar Turnover (£m) Pre-tax profit (£m) Earnings per share (p) Dividend per share (p)
2004 140.0 19.2 60.60 17.31
2005 129.0 17.6 53.40 18.46
2006 145.0 15.3 46.40 19.75
2007 178.2 42.2 52.14 **6.50
2008 181.1 23.8 34.33 **6.90
% change +2 -44 -34 +6

Ex-div: 25 Jun

Payment: 25 Jul

*Based on 'A' and 'C' shares **Adjusted for share split

Click here for a guide to the terms used in IC results tables


IC View

FairlyPriced

These results confirm the resilience of Fuller's business model. Yet its share price has been heavily hit by the sector's de-rating and its cautionary statement will do little to lift investor sentiment in the short term. Fairly priced.

Last IC View: Good value, 585p, 26 Nov 2007


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