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The equity indices appearing in our table enjoyed a bounce in April, but their increases weren't enough to cause any change in their IC/Coppock signals. They all remain on 'wait' and should stay that way for some time according to the IC/Coppock Anticipator.
In the chart below, the FTSE 100 is stuck in a downward trend channel with no tell-tale exhaustion moves. The index has also found itself at the top of a resistance band with slowing momentum. It looks set to fall further.
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Meanwhile, the indicators for the gold indices continue their inverse relationship with their equity counterparts and remain on 'hold'. The exception being the indicator for the South African Gold Mines Index, which is having a touch of the whipsaw wobbles. It produced yet another sell signal after March's buy signal - but is keeping up with the index itself extraordinarily well - expect another signal soon.
| Summary table of all our IC/Coppock Indicators | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ave index | Indicators | ||||
| Index/market | April * | April † | March † | February † | Signal |
| UK Govt. Secs | 148.14 | -2.8 | -6.7 | -11.0 | HOLD |
| FT 30 | 2,505.40 | -41.7 | -21.5 | +1.3 | WAIT |
| FTSE 100 | 5,993.55 | -11.1 | -0.6 | +14.1 | WAIT |
| FTSE All-Share | 3,057.15 | -16.4 | -4.0 | +12.4 | WAIT |
| FT Gold Mines | 2,994.67 | +160.2 | +155.3 | +126.0 | HOLD |
| Amsterdam | 713.29 | -13.7 | +6.6 | +30.6 | WAIT |
| ASX All Ord | 5,591.60 | +31.2 | +56.2 | +84.4 | WAIT |
| S&P/ASX 200 Energy | 15,633.04 | +125.2 | +128.3 | +134.2 | WAIT |
| Belgium S.E. | 31,940.14 | -27.3 | -9.0 | +12.9 | WAIT |
| Dax (Germany) | 6,762.71 | +51.5 | +80.1 | +108.9 | WAIT |
| Dow Jones | 12,656.63 | +24.2 | +36.1 | +49.8 | WAIT |
| Rep of Ireland (ISEQ) | 6,230.03 | -133.8 | -107.6 | -75.8 | WAIT |
| France CAC 40 | 4,900.19 | -34.0 | -14.1 | +9.2 | WAIT |
| Hang Seng | 24,581.82 | +166.4 | +182.3 | +203.7 | WAIT |
| Italy BCI | 1,593.18 | -71.6 | -48.8 | -22.7 | WAIT |
| S. Africa Gold | 2,451.68 | -70.8 | -65.5 | -71.2 | SELL |
| S. Africa Industrial | 27,733.48 | +64.7 | +96.0 | +127.9 | WAIT |
| Straits Times | 3,135.03 | +49.3 | +81.6 | +119.0 | WAIT |
| Tokyo New S.E. | 1,297.16 | -91.3 | -73.1 | -47.7 | WAIT |
| Toronto Comp | 13,891.25 | +33.9 | +42.8 | +54.5 | WAIT |
| Toronto Gold | 2,851.82 | +103.3 | +92.0 | +62.9 | HOLD |
| Sweden OMX | 977.38 | -52.4 | -23.4 | +9.9 | WAIT |
| FTSE techMARK 100 | 1,555.25 | +24.0 | +42.7 | +64.4 | WAIT |
| Nasdaq 100 | 1,868.32 | +49.7 | +64.9 | +84.3 | WAIT |
| *Average index for the month of January 2008. † IC/Coppock indicator. †† Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal. | |||||
The IC/Coppock indicator identifies long-term buying opportunities. It is based on a mechanical system known as the 'long-term buying guide', which was devised by Edwin Coppock of Texas. This buying guide was then revised by Investors Chronicle in 1963 - so it differs from the original system, which is still used by our columnist, The Trader.
Mr Coppock only used his indicator as a buying guide, but we also show the sell signals in our table (above), just for interest. However, caution must be exercised when viewing these sell signals because they do not always indicate the commencement of a bear market. Sell signals do indicate a downward movement in the particular index, but this may well be a mere dip in a continuing bull market.
In the table, you will see the latest indicator, followed by the figures for the previous two months. These indicators can rise and fall, and be positive or negative figures. So when an indicator is in its negative phase, and then begins to rise after a falling trend, this is a buy signal [eg -5.1 (Jan), -28.3 (Dec), -27 (Nov)]. When the indicator is in a positive rising phase, and begins to fall, this is a sell signal [eg +120.9 (Jan), +132.5 (Dec), +128 (Nov)].
Unofficial buy signals occur when the indicator begins to rise, but is not in the negative phase. These may give investors an extra opportunity to purchase shares. Conversely, unofficial sells are given when the indicator begins to fall while in the negative phase.
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-IC-1.5.4a-prod - 31/10/2008 13:11:34 - carlos.princz
