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Gold sparkles against the gloom

Created:
2 December 2008
Written by:
Robert Ansted

No new signals were announced in November and all the IC/Coppock Indicators continue their journey south, with the exception of the UK All Stocks Gilts.

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This index performs contrariously to the equity markets and even posted a new high since its 'buy' signal was given in August last year. This indicator remains on 'hold' for now, though.

Rebased: 02 01 2003 = 100

The only indices to perform well during November were those for the gold mines. Toronto Gold was up 45.8 per cent on the month, followed by the FT Gold Mines up 31 per cent and South Africa up 21.72 per cent. These increases reflect the recent rise in the price of gold bullion, but their performance wasn't sufficient to produce any 'buy' signal. The overall trend for these markets remains downward and these rises must, therefore, be viewed as a correction.

Rebased 03 11 2008 = 100

Summary table of Coppock indicators:

Index/market Average index Indicators Signal
November * November † September † September †
UK All Stocks Gilts 151.29 +7.3 +6.6 +6.0 HOLD
FT30 1,555.94 -163.7 -142.2 -116.8 WAIT
FTSE 100 4,223.95 -110.9 -90.3 -63.9 WAIT
FTSE All-Share 2,110.73 -118.4 -97.6 -71.5 WAIT
FT Gold Mines 1,611.75 -31.3 33.5 98.8 WAIT
Amsterdam 397.05 -163.4 -133.8 -99.0 WAIT
ASX All Ord 3,750.30 -132.1 -102.5 -72.6 WAIT
S&P/ASX 200 Energy 12540.29 +50.2 +87.6 +129.8 WAIT
Belgium S.E. 18,012.96 -167.9 -142.2 -111.5 WAIT
Dax (Germany) 4,691.99 -123.2 -95.4 -62.9 WAIT
Dow Jones 8614.55 -106.5 -81.9 -53.6 WAIT
Rep of Ireland (ISEQ) 2,653.33 -274.6 -253.8 -228.4 WAIT
France CAC 40 3,287.21 -155.2 -135.0 -111.3 WAIT
Hang Seng 13,572.81 -94.5 -39.4 +21.9 WAIT
Italy BCI 1,008.25 -189.7 -171.2 -148.4 WAIT
S Africa (Gold) 1,680.52 -131.8 -115.5 -97.8 WAIT
S Africa (Industrial) 20,642.36 -97.6 -74.9 -51.8 WAIT
Straits Times 1,753.36 -154.2 -119.4 -79.7 WAIT
Tokyo New S.E. 857.92 -168.7 -151.6 -130.3 WAIT
Toronto Comp 9,043.71 -67.1 -35.5 -3.2 WAIT
Toronto Gold 1,815.66 +13.2 +60.4 +109.3 WAIT
Sweden OMX 642.07 -180.5 -164.8 -141.4 WAIT
FTSE techMARK 100 1,156.88 -87.8 -66.7 -41.3 WAIT
Nasdaq 100 1,199.07 -92.2 -55.2 -16.2 WAIT
*Average index for the month of November 2008. † IC/Coppock indicator. †† Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal.

Read more articles about Coppock indicators here...


ABOUT THE IC/COPPOCK INDICATOR:

The IC/Coppock indicator identifies long-term buying opportunities. It is based on a mechanical system known as the long-term buying guide, which was devised by Edwin Coppock of Texas. This buying guide was then revised by Investors Chronicle in 1963 - so it differs from the original system, which is still used by our columnist, The Trader.

Mr Coppock only used his indicator as a buying guide, but we also show the sell signals in our table (above), just for interest. However, caution must be exercised when viewing these sell signals because they do not always indicate the commencement of a bear market. Sell signals do indicate a downward movement in the particular index, but this may well be a mere dip in a continuing bull market.

In the table, you will see the latest indicator, followed by the figures for the previous two months. These indicators can rise and fall, and be positive or negative figures. So when an indicator is in its negative phase, and then begins to rise after a falling trend, this is a buy signal [eg -5.1 (Jan), -28.3 (Dec), -27 (Nov)]. When the indicator is in a positive rising phase, and begins to fall, this is a sell signal [eg +120.9 (Jan), +132.5 (Dec), +128 (Nov)].

Unofficial buy signals occur when the indicator begins to rise, but is not in the negative phase. These may give investors an extra opportunity to purchase shares. Conversely, unofficial sells are given when the indicator begins to fall while in the negative phase.


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