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Stable doors and horses

Created:
6 July 2009
Written by:
Robert Ansted

The majority of the world stock markets for which we calculate IC/Coppock indicators have now given "Buy" signals. This now only leaves the Australian energy and Toronto Composite indicators still waiting to turn.

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The UK indicators, along with the one for the Dow Jones, were among the latest stock market indices producing "BUY" signals in June. Thankfully, the IC/Coppock indicator is a long-term buying guide, otherwise it might look as though these latest signals were a little like shutting the stable doors after the horse had bolted.

The UK and the US stock markets suffered a setback as bad news concerning the US unemployment data hit the headlines just before the Independence Day holiday. Both of these markets fell overall during June and the grim reapers among us believe they both have further to fall. That said, these new signals given within major global markets are encouraging news to would-be investors.

Summary table of IC/Coppock indicators - major markets worldwide:

Index/market Average index Indicators Signal
June* June † May † April †
UK Govt. Secs 152.43 28.3 25.2 23.0 HOLD
FT 30  1,545.03 -223.0 -227.5 -227.4 BUY
FTSE 100 4,349.24 -165.6 -169.5 -168.1 BUY
FTSE All-Share 2,220.39 -168.4 -173.4 -173.2 BUY
FT Gold Mines 2,691.25 -121.4 -139.0 -148.6 HOLD
Amsterdam 410.25 -254.5 -255.7 -251.0 BUY
ASX All Ord 3,931.80 -199.4 -205.9 -204.7 BUY
S&P/ASX 200 Energy 14,690.77 -99.2 -85.0 -69.8 WAIT
Belgium S.E. 18,349.21 -249.9 -253.9 -252.1 BUY
Dax (Germany) 4,930.82 -187.7 -194.2 -195.4 HOLD
Dow Jones 8,593.00 -190.4 -193.5 -189.2 BUY
Rep of Ireland (ISEQ) 2,819.13 -330.0 -340.8 -342.1 HOLD
France CAC 40 3,242.85 -205.9 -211.8 -212.1 HOLD
Hang Seng 18,342.45 -207.4 -224.5 -227.5 HOLD
Italy BCI 975.95 -238.4 -246.3 -249.6 HOLD
S. Africa Gold 2,484.16 -6.5 -27.4 -44.5 HOLD
S. Africa Industrial 20,778.62 -146.8 -152.5 -150.9 BUY
Straits Times 2,325.53 -211.8 -228.2 -236.1 HOLD
Tokyo New S.E. 921.57 -208.3 -212.2 -212.6 HOLD
Toronto Comp 10,372.29 -181.8 -180.8 -175.3 WAIT
Toronto Gold 2,634.57 -67.2 -73.5 -77.8 HOLD
Sweden OMX 782.04 -154.8 -171.2 -182.1 HOLD
FTSE techMARK 100 1,338.05 -103.7 -110.5 -116.1 HOLD
Nasdaq 100 1,472.16 -174.6 -180.3 -178.3 BUY
*Average index for June 2009. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal.

Five "BUY" signals were given for June within the sectors for the FTSE All-Share Index. According to Nationwide house prices went up in June and it is interesting to see the property sector amongst the five IC/Coppock "BUY" signals.

For a list of the constituents of the FTSE All-Share sector indices click here

Summary table of IC/Coppock indicators - FTSE All-Share Sectors:

Index/market Average index Indicators Signal
June* June † May † April †
Mining 14,184.16 -282.2 -279.2 -265.9 WAIT
Oil & Gas 7,143.70 -85.8 -82.6 -74.4 WAIT
Chemicals 3,452.35 -205.6 -202.5 -195.0 WAIT
Constr & Bldg mats 3,415.62 -193.3 -207.1 -219.5 HOLD
Forestry & paper 2,489.61 -285.0 -301.5 -300.4 BUY
Steel & other metals 5,276.41 -346.8 -341.3 -302.8 WAIT
Aerospace & defence 2,556.15 -136.0 -138.6 -137.3 BUY
Diversified industrls 1,329.05 -188.2 -185.5 -182.5 WAIT
Electronic & electr eqpt 1,362.37 -240.2 -232.5 -222.7 WAIT
Eng'g & machinery 2,772.28 -175.4 -171.5 -167.7 WAIT
Automobiles & parts 2,050.20 -346.5 -357.4 -358.5 HOLD
H'hold goods textiles 1,247.21 -203.7 -231.3 -252.6 HOLD
Beverages 6,146.50 -68.9 -77.1 -80.2 HOLD
Food producers 3,657.43 -108.1 -116.3 -115.9 BUY
Health 2,684.07 -185.2 -186.0 -186.0 BUY
Personal care 6,096.17 -123.2 -139.7 -151.5 HOLD
Pharmaceuticals 7,402.63 16.1 10.9 9.4 HOLD
Tobacco 20,511.82 -81.9 -80.5 -70.3 WAIT
General retailers 1,399.63 -141.7 -175.7 -202.8 HOLD
Leisure & hotels 3,272.57 -180.3 -193.4 -207.0 HOLD
Media ent't 2,661.14 -150.5 -161.0 -171.9 HOLD
Support services 2,878.64 -145.4 -156.8 -166.8 HOLD
Transport 2,308.57 -247.8 -262.4 -267.7 HOLD
Food & drug rtlrs 4,247.20 -88.8 -100.5 -104.3 HOLD
Telecommns svs 1,509.84 -265.4 -266.4 -262.8 BUY
Electricity 6,236.50 -98.7 -88.1 -77.9 WAIT
Other utilities 4,720.25 -102.5 -97.6 -94.7 WAIT
Banks 3,802.20 -302.7 -312.3 -315.8 HOLD
Insurance 1,355.50 11.8 8.7 4.0 HOLD
Life assurance 3,010.59 -246.4 -255.1 -257.0 HOLD
Investment cos 4,299.91 -174.5 -179.2 -179.6 HOLD
Real estate 1,574.59 -294.2 -296.4 -292.9 BUY
Other finance 3,699.67 -255.4 -263.1 -263.7 HOLD
IT hardware 324.05 -64.0 -103.0 -140.0 HOLD
Software & comp svs 519.95 -74.4 -91.8 -106.9 HOLD
*Average index for June 2009. † IC/Coppock indicator. †† Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal.

All of the stock markets within our emerging and other stock m.arket tables have now turned. Brazil, Russia, Spain and Mexico all followed the other markets and produced "BUY" signals in June.

Summary table of IC/Coppock indicators - Emerging markets worldwide:

Index/market Average index Indicators Signal
June* June † May † April †
Argentina 5,513.23 -235.3 -246.1 -249.4 HOLD
FTSE Aim 532.75 -300.2 -306.6 -307.3 HOLD
Brazil 52,060.43 -173.1 -179.5 -176.6 BUY
China 3,012.63 -207.4 -255.8 -279.9 HOLD
Greece 2,282.08 -294.3 -308.1 -312.9 HOLD
India 7,711.13 -190.4 -225.0 -235.2 HOLD
Indonesia 2,029.80 -195.3 -217.2 -227.4 HOLD
Israel 801.79 -185.0 -192.8 -201.9 HOLD
Mexico 7,659.99 -226.9 -233.3 -232.1 BUY
Philippines 2,477.56 -159.9 -189.1 -206.0 HOLD
Poland 31,019.55 -237.0 -253.3 -261.5 HOLD
Portugal 7,085.92 -219.7 -233.4 -241.3 HOLD
Russia 13,225.30 -301.7 -306.5 -305.7 BUY
South Korea 1,395.24 -160.9 -171.1 -177.5 HOLD
Spain 990.77 -204.7 -213.6 -213.2 BUY
Switzerland 5,399.91 -168.8 -173.4 -174.0 HOLD
Thailand 595.26 -221.8 -237.6 -239.3 HOLD
Turkey 35,244.30 -180.0 -210.3 -231.1 HOLD
Venezuela 43,348.53 50.7 34.5 13.8 HOLD
*Average index for June 2009. † IC/Coppock indicator. †† Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self-explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal.

Read previous Coppock indicators here...


ABOUT THE IC/COPPOCK INDICATOR

The IC/Coppock indicator identifies long-term buying opportunities. It is based on a mechanical system known as the 'long-term buying guide', which was devised by Edwin Coppock of Texas. This buying guide was then revised by Investors Chronicle in 1963 - so it differs from the original system, which is still used by our columnist, The Trader.

Mr Coppock only used his indicator as a buying guide, but we also show the sell signals in our table (above), just for interest. However, caution must be exercised when viewing these sell signals because they do not always indicate the start of a bear market. Sell signals do indicate a downward movement in the particular index, but this may well be a mere dip in a continuing bull market.

In the table, you will see the latest indicator, followed by the figures for the previous two months. These indicators can rise and fall, and be positive or negative figures. So when an indicator is in its negative phase, and then begins to rise after a falling trend, this is a buy signal [eg -5.1 (Jan), -28.3 (Dec), -27 (Nov)]. When the indicator is in a positive rising phase, and begins to fall, this is a sell signal [eg +120.9 (Jan), +132.5 (Dec), +128 (Nov)].

Unofficial buy signals occur when the indicator begins to rise, but is not in the negative phase. These may give investors an extra opportunity to purchase shares. Conversely, unofficial sells are given when the indicator begins to fall while in the negative phase.


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