The NIESR is expected to estimate on Thursday that GDP growth has accelerated, to 0.8 per cent in the three months to July. This, however, owes nothing to manufacturing. Although official figures could show that output rose in June, this would follow two months of decline. And purchasing managers are likely to say on Monday that output grew only modestly in July.
Instead, growth is being driven by a pick-up in North Sea oil production - which Wednesday's figures could show has helped narrow the trade gap - and a strong services sector. Purchasing managers are likely to say that the latter showed strong growth in July.
One symptom of this lack of balance is that house prices are rising strongly. The RICS is likely to say on Thursday that inflation has accelerated, thanks to a lack of supply.
At least two things could continue to hold back manufacturing. One is the strong pound. The other will be evident in other figures next week - weak growth in the euro area. Official industrial production numbers could show that while output grew in Germany and Italy in the second quarter, it fell in France. This, alongside purchasing managers surveys, will remind us that euro area growth is weak and patchy. There might, however, be slightly better news on the consumer front. Official figures on Wednesday could show that retail sales volumes in the region rose by 0.5 per cent in the second quarter.
In the US the picture could be a better. Monday's ISM survey could show that manufacturing growth has hit a seven-month high. And Friday's figures could show another strong rise in non-farm payrolls (of around 250,000) and slight fall in the unemployment rate, to 5.2 per cent, its lowest rate since April 2008. Other numbers could show that this is causing wage inflation to rise. Thanks to this, markets might strengthen their expectation that the Fed will raise interest rates in September.
