The uncertainty over the future of Immupharma's flagship lupus medicine, Lupuzor, characterised much of 2011 after development partner Cepahlon was taken over by Israeli generics company, Teva Pharmaceuticals. Teva prefers to copy existing compounds and Immupharma duly received back the rights to Lupuzor in October. The question now is whether the company can find a development partner prepared to take on the risk of developing Lupuzor, with the shares now a binary bet on this happening.
Immupharma's management hopes that the work already completed by Cephalon will be a sufficient bait to hook a new licensing partner. Cephalon had completed a phase IIb study by the time it sold out to Teva and had authorisation from the US Food and Drug Administration to start a phase III trial. The trial had a fast-track designation that would have allowed quicker development, as lupus is a hard to treat chronic condition, another plus point for any potential partners. Other drugs in the pipeline include anti-cancer drug Nucant, which has completed an early stage trial in France.
Cephalon's sale meant Seymour Pierce cut its estimates for 2012 and now forecasts a loss per share of 5.1p, compared with EPS of 16.3p previously. The broker estimates that Immupharma has enough cash to last three years.
IMMUPHARMA (IMM) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORD PRICE: | 71p | MARKET VALUE: | £57.9m | |
| TOUCH: | 70-72p | 12-MONTH HIGH: | 100p | LOW: 62p |
| DIVIDEND YIELD: | nil | PE RATIO: | na | |
| NET ASSET VALUE: | 15p | NET CASH: | £11.2m | |
| Year to 31 Dec | Turnover (£m) | Pre-tax profit (£m) | Earnings per share (p) | Dividend per share (p) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 0.06 | 3.34 | -4.24 | nil |
| 2008 | 0.05 | 4.86 | 6.23 | nil |
| 2009 | 22.0 | 9.10 | 10.46 | nil |
| 2010 | 0.03 | -2.47 | -2.44 | nil |
| 2011 | 0.01 | -3.61 | -4.12 | nil |
| % change | -67 | - | - | - |
