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All eyes on AB-SAB as union looks likelier

Anheuser-Busch InBev's bid to create a global brewing titan offered a distraction from SAB's lacklustre half-year performance
November 13, 2015

The particulars of these SABMiller (SAB) results were inevitably overshadowed by the prior day's announcement of its likely takeover by rival Anheuser-Busch InBev. The bulk of questions fielded by chief executive Alan Clark on results day concerned the deal, but no extra details were forthcoming - not even on his own future, which has apparently not yet been discussed. Mr Clark instead highlighted that the company will have made a 1,600 per cent sterling return for investors since its 1999 listing, assuming the £44 share offer ends in union.

IC TIP: Hold at 4,057p

The deal - which has the board's recommendation and the support of SAB's two largest shareholders - would forge easily the world's largest brewer, with brands including AB InBev's Budweiser, Stella Artois and Corona alongside SAB's Peroni, Grolsch and Pilsner Urquell. The combined company would brew more than a quarter of the world's beer. But it also means UK investors won't have a UK-listed share to invest in.

For now, however, Mr Clark was keen to stress that SAB remained its own business, and that management would not be taking its eye off the ball of operations. Indeed, the company reiterated that it was on track to deliver more than $430m (£283m) of annualised savings by the year-end. It expects $1bn of savings by 2020, which is below the $1.4bn in synergies AB InBev expects by year four, following the deal.

In terms of SAB's performance in the six months to September, the company produced solid enough underlying numbers. Net producer revenue, which excludes excise duties and other taxes, rose 4 per cent to nearly $12.7bn, thanks to a strong showing from its largest revenue generators, Latin America and Africa. Europe was hit by pricing pressures in Poland and the beer market decline in Russia, while volumes in the US dropped 2 per cent. Revealingly, company soft drink volumes rose 4 per cent. The company's reported numbers looked much worse because of the dollar's strength against many of SAB's operating currencies.

Prior to these results, Canaccord Genuity expected pre-tax profit of $4.62bn for the year to March 2016, leading to EPS of 241¢, compared with $4.65bn and 237¢ for FY2015.

 

SABMiller (SAB)
ORD PRICE:4,057pMARKET VALUE:£65.7bn
TOUCH:4,056-4,057p12-MONTH HIGH:4,090pLOW: 2,773p
DIVIDEND YIELD:1.9%PE RATIO:33
NET ASSET VALUE: 1,336pNET DEBT:50%

Half-year to 30 SepTurnover ($bn)Pre-tax profit ($bn)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)
201411.42.812326.0
201510.02.310228.3
% change-12-18-17+9

Ex-div: 26 Nov

Payment: 4 Dec

*Includes intangible assets of $20bn, or 1,240¢ a share **£1=$1.52