The track has been laid for major new and aggressive rail franchise bidders to target the UK market after incumbent National Express (NEX) cut ties to the country's rail industry.
The Birmingham-based business was once the national rail leader with nine franchises, but this week sold its last one, c2c, to Trenitalia for £70m. The sale provided a small net profit for the company, but the much bigger issue is what this means for its incumbent rivals.
With five franchises up for renewal between now and end-2018 there is the potential that Trenitalia could enter the fray and challenge existing players such as Stagecoach (SGC) and Go-Ahead (GOG).
The Italian state-owned company also benefits from the fact it is vertically integrated, meaning it has responsibility for rail infrastructure are well as the operation of trains.
This is something the UK government appears to want too, after an announcement late last year suggesting there should be greater collaboration between train operators and Network Rail, the government-funded organisation that oversees rail infrastructure.
Liberum analyst Gerald Khoo said he saw the exit of National Express from UK rail, and Trenitalia's entry, as a "negative for the remaining listed groups".
"In future franchise competitions they will now face a more active bidder than National Express, and one that is likely to be more ambitious in building a portfolio of franchises," he said.
"Without the short-term discipline imposed by institutional shareholders, this points to Trenitalia being a more aggressive competitor. It could also prove to be a highly credible bidder for new franchises, with more infrastructure experience and inheriting the excellent operational track record of the c2c franchise."
The c2c franchise, which runs out of London's Fenchurch Street station to Essex, lasts until 2029 and carries roughly 37m passengers a year.
National Express chief executive Dean Finch said the move did not mean it was ruling itself out of bidding on future UK rail franchises, but that it was going to focus more keenly on opportunities overseas.
Barbara Morgante, Trenitalia's chief, said she saw "significant chances to invest in UK rail", adding that she believed travellers on the franchise would "benefit from our skill and capabilities developed in the highly competitive Italian market".
She added that the company was closely monitoring the railways franchising programme as it "intends to participate in tenders issued by the DfT to strengthen our presence in the UK".
The deal still has to be signed off by the Department for Transport, but is expected to be rubber-stamped in weeks.
