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Clean up with Ricardo

The engineering consultancy's market-leading exposure to long-term legislative drivers makes its reasonably priced shares a buy
May 12, 2016

A series of high-profile scandals in the car industry have forced regulators to tighten up legislation, pressuring manufacturers to get their acts together. Plenty have been turning to Ricardo (RCDO), a world-leading multi-service engineering consultancy, to assist with the development of greener launches ahead of what looks to be a gradual switch to electric-powered vehicles. We'd argue that its status as the market leader in this field and the only listed company to cater to these largely compulsory changes make the shares a buy on an undemanding multiple of 16 times forecast earnings.

IC TIP: Buy at 837p
Tip style
Growth
Risk rating
Medium
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points
  • Global leader in markets underpinned by long-term legislation
  • Record order book
  • McLaren work ramping up
  • Diversifying into exciting markets
Bear points
  • Risk that car manufacturers increase in-house capabilities
  • Sluggish global economic growth

But investors seem skittish about Ricardo maintaining its recent positive momentum based on recent share price weakness, and may have overlooked its growing exposure to new markets similarly backed by legislation. In regards to the former, weekly headlines about the world's biggest car manufacturers outlining early plans to develop cleaner technology in vehicles indicate we're likely to be only at the beginning of a positive earnings cycle. Add to this rising signs that the Chinese government is taking pollution and electric vehicles seriously, and there's a strong case to argue that Ricardo's expertise in these matters will be in hot demand for at least another decade.

 

 

Sluggish economic growth shouldn't derail these prospects, either. While the car market is cyclical, legislation means reducing carbon emissions isn't an option for manufacturers, which helps to explain why Ricardo delivered a record order book of £201m in a period when most were sweating over slower growth in emerging regions.

That impressive figure doesn't include the big engine deals in the process of being signed with the likes of McLaren. Ricardo has a strategic relationship with the Formula One race team, supplying about 1,500 engines a year for its road cars. But in the last financial year, its small manufacturing arm behind this work experienced an unusual downturn, as supercar makers entered a transitional phase ahead of new launches.

Fortunately, McLaren and other clients are now gearing up to unveil the next generation of cars, meaning that looks to be just a temporary blip. The fact that Ricardo just doubled its engine-building capacity suggests it's very confident that there's plenty of demand here.

Ricardo's 100-year history in the trade means it's often the first name to be called for these types of projects. In recent years management has taken advantage of its reputation and expertise by applying its skills to different markets, including rail, marine, motorcycles and water preservation.

Last year it snapped up two companies, the largest of which was rail consultancy and assurance business Lloyd's Register Group for an initial consideration of £41m. The acquisition of Lloyd's immediately beefed up Ricardo's presence in an industry buoyed by surging investment in global rail networks. With about 450 extra rail specialists joining after the takeover, the group immediately won some big orders, including a multiyear rail project in Asia.

The other acquisition saw Ricardo buy consultant Cascade for £3.2m. According to management, this deal enabled its energy and environment business to drive private sector and international growth into the water sector. Given that the issue of water preservation is high on the agendas of governments and campaigners across the globe, this move also appears to be a shrewd one.

RICARDO (RCDO)
ORD PRICE:837pMARKET VALUE:£443m
TOUCH:833-840p12-MONTHHIGH:968pLOW: 765p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:2.3%FORWARD PE RATIO:16
NET ASSET VALUE:233p*NET DEBT:26%

Year to 30 JuneTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)**Earnings per share (p)**Dividend per share (p)
201323022.735.014.0
201423624.638.115.2
201525826.842.016.6
2016**32336.248.217.9
2017**34638.050.819.2
% change+7+5+5+7

Normal market size: 500

Matched bargain trading

Beta: 0.25

*Includes intangible assets of £79.4m, or 150p a share

**Investec forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures