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Go-Ahead on track despite lossmaking Govia

The rail and bus group apologised for its Southern rail service, but the trouble hasn't held the share price back
September 5, 2016

Commuters on troubled Southern rail services - which is run by Go-Ahead Group (GOG) joint venture Govia - are unlikely to be as happy as the group's shareholders. While delays and cancellations have caused havoc for passengers travelling into London (which management has apologised for), the company's shares rose as much as 10 per cent on the back of these numbers. The rail division reported a 5 per cent rise in operating profits to £27.1m on revenues of £2.5bn - up 4.2 per cent on the same period in 2015. This was all the more impressive given that Govia made a small loss and the group paid the government £222m from its rail businesses.

IC TIP: Buy at 2162p

Elsewhere, in the bus division, adjusted total operating profits hit the £100m mark, a target management set a few years back. This was achieved by retaining a 24 per cent market share in London, while lower fuel and bid costs at the regional bus division boosted adjusted operating profits by 9 per cent to £53.3m and profit margins by 0.7 percentage points to 14.2 per cent.

Analysts at Liberum expect pre-tax profits of £150m for the year to June 2017, leading to EPS of 231p, up from £139m and 221p in FY2015.

GO-AHEAD GROUP (GOG)
ORD PRICE:2,162pMARKET VALUE:£930m
TOUCH:2,159-2,167p12-MONTH HIGH:2,758pLOW: 1,775p
DIVIDEND YIELD:4.4%PE RATIO:13
NET ASSET VALUE:398p*NET DEBT:123%

Year to 2 JulTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20122.4284.513081.0
20132.5763.110881.0
20142.7091.216484.5
20153.2278.712290.0
20163.3699.816295.9
% change+5+27+33+7

Ex-div: 10 Nov

Payment: 25 Nov

*Includes intangible assets of £82.8m, or 193p a share