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Opinion

Next week's economics: 22-26 Sep

Next week's economics: 22-26 Sep
September 18, 2014
Next week's economics: 22-26 Sep

Purchasing managers surveys on Tuesday are expected to show that both manufacturing and services sectors are barely growing, and that growth has slowed even from the sluggish pace of earlier this year. This is likely to be corroborated on Wednesday by Germany's Ifo survey - which could show a fifth successive monthly drop - and by the National Bank of Belgium's business climate indicator.

The ECB could reveal one reason for this weakness on Thursday. Its figures then are likely to show another year-on-year drop in bank lending to the private sector, with no sign of any pick-up soon; lending is likely to show a fourth successive month-on-month drop. The figures could also show that long-term deposits with banks are falling while overnight ones are rising - which is consistent with depositors having a lack of confidence in banks. Such numbers will corroborate economists' fears that a weak banking sector is holding back the euro area economy.

In the US, we might see an apparently alarming headline, because durable goods orders could post a massive fall. This would, however, be no cause for concern. Orders soared by 22.6 per cent last month because of one-off orders of new airplanes, and August should see a return to normal. Non-transport orders could rise a little, consistent with an economy that's growing well.

In the UK, there'll be two releases to watch. If retailers' expectations last month were correct, the CBI should report strong retail sales growth in September. This would be because continued employment growth is offsetting falling real wages.

Figures on government borrowing might, however, cause a little concern. They could show public sector net borrowing so far this year of around £40bn, compared with £35.5bn in the same period last year. This might lead some to worry that the OBR's forecast - for the deficit to narrow from £93.7bn to £83.9bn - will not be met. One reason for this seems to be that economic growth is not bringing in the tax revenues the OBR expected. This might be related to the fact that self-employment is growing at the expense of the corporate sector.

However, with bond yields near record lows in Europe, it is unlikely that the gilt market will worry about this.