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Why Travis Perkins' performance is not as bad as it looks

Benign housing transactions and pressure on heating and plumbing leave limited scope for growth
March 4, 2016

Travis Perkins ' (TPK) full-year numbers for 2015 were not as bad as they seem at face value, for if you add back amortisation and impairment charges operating profits were actually up 8 per cent at £413m.

IC TIP: Hold at 1852p

Three of the group's four operating divisions reported higher revenues. The consumer business, which comprises Wickes and Toolstation, pushed adjusted operating profits ahead by nearly a quarter to £95m, while like-for-like sales were up 5.3 per cent against a DIY market that was broadly flat. Profits in the contracts division, which concentrates on commercial construction and housebuilding, grew by 15 per cent to £83m, although trading was more difficult than in the previous year, partly due to pressure on public sector repair and maintenance work.

General merchanting pushed profits ahead by nearly 9 per cent to £199m, although trading slowed in the second half as a result of fewer secondary housing transactions. However, better sourcing and management of cost price inflation helped to lift gross margins.

The non-performer was plumbing and heating, where like-for-like sales fell by 1.4 per cent. This was partly due to lower boiler sales after the positive impact of the government-backed ECO scheme in 2014 was not repeated, and adjusted operating profits fell by 29 per cent to £46m.

Analysts at Peel Hunt are forecasting adjusted pre-tax profits for the year to December 2016 of £431m and EPS of 140p, against £364m and 117p in 2015.

TRAVIS PERKINS (TPK)
ORD PRICE:1,852pMARKET VALUE:£4.6bn
TOUCH:1,851-1,853p12-MONTH HIGH:2,270pLOW: 1,662p
DIVIDEND YIELD:2.4%PE RATIO:27
NET ASSET VALUE:1,116p*NET DEBT:16%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20114.782709020
20124.8431310925
20135.1531311031
20145.5832110638
20155.942246844
% change+6-30-36+16

Ex-div:28 Apr

Payment:27 May

*Includes intangible assets of £2.1bn or 845p a share