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The alarm has passed at Sprue Aegis

The home-safety specialist has moved on from 2016's problems with a defective product and is now set to expand further into the potentially lucrative connected home products market.
April 12, 2017

We feel this is an opportune moment to buy into the home-safety group Sprue Aegis (SPRP) as the shares start to recover following revelations of a product defect last year. As well as being impressed by how Sprue has dealt with the product issue we also see opportunities from new manufacturing and third-party product distribution arrangements coupled with the long-term growth potential from regulation and its move into 'internet of things' products.

IC TIP: Buy at 182.5p
Tip style
Speculative
Risk rating
Medium
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points
  • Resolution of third-party battery problem
  • New manufacturing deal with Flex
  • Connected home products market
  • Growth opportunities in Germany
Bear points
  • Ongoing risk of reputational damage
  • Strong US dollar

Sprue designs and develops own-brand smoke and carbon-monoxide (CO) alarms and outsources manufacturing. It also distributes these products internationally along with other third-party products. A year ago its share price halved after it identified that some of its smoke alarms were giving a premature low-battery warning signal. The potential damage, particularly from a reputational perspective, could have been devastating, but management acted quickly and decisively to provide redress to customers and shore-up confidence by switching the problem batteries to ones supplied by highly regarded brand Panasonic.

 

 

The issue resulted in Sprue putting in place a £6.8m warranty provision to ring-fence the impact on the future profits. Last year £2.2m of the provision was used with the rest of the cash impact expected over the next four to five years. This exacerbated several other 2016 hits, notably: an anticipated sharp contraction in French sales following a regulation-driven surge in 2015; dollar-driven input cost increases (an ongoing problem); and product certification delays in Germany.

But there are now reasons hope for improvements. German demand rose strongly during the second half - up 162 per cent - and is expected to be buoyed over coming years as new home-safety regulation is rolled out on a staggered regional basis. Demand in the UK is also strong.

What's more, Newell Brands, which manufactures for Sprue as well as supplying it with its products for distribution (for a £2.9m annual fee paid by Sprue) has given notice on both agreements with termination set for end of March next year. Sprue was clearly ready for Newell's move as it immediately announced it would link with US multinational Flex to manufacture its own products in Poland - a location nearer its key markets - and enter into a supply agreement with a leading manufacturer based in the Far East to replace the Newell products. Sprue believes the new arrangements will allow it to significantly increase scale and value.

As well as regulatory-driven growth and increases to the current low level of CO alarm use in Europe, the 'internet of things' provides Sprue with a potentially large opportunity. The move into remotely-monitored smart devices will be aided by last year's £2.8m acquisition of source code with development rights from Intamac Systems. Smart alarms also opens up highly lucrative opportunities from public housing associations and municipal bodies.

SPRUE AEGIS (SPRP)
ORD PRICE:182.5pMARKET VALUE:£84m
TOUCH:180-185p12-MONTH HIGH:268pLOW: 115p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:5.5%FORWARD PE RATIO:15
NET ASSET VALUE:65p**NET CASH:£14.3m

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)*Dividend per share (p)
201588.312.824.38.0
201657.12.35.58.0
2017*60.64.69.19.0
2018*64.36.112.010.0
% change+6+33+32+11

Normal market size: 1,500

Matched bargain trading

Beta: 0.29

*Stockdale Securities forecasts, adjusted EPS figures

**Includes intangible assets of £10m, or 22p a share