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Buy good long returns at a discount with Lowland

Lowland Investment Company makes good long-term returns and can currently be bought at a discount to NAV
March 17, 2016

IC Top 100 Fund Lowland Investment Company (LWI) is capable of delivering strong returns and, over the long term, has generated good profits for its shareholders. However, this is a volatile trust and at times its share price can fall sharply - in part due to the contrarian investment approach taken by manager James Henderson.

IC TIP: Buy at 1183.5p
Tip style
Income
Risk rating
High
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points
  • Good long-term returns
  • Wide discount to NAV
  • Reasonable ongoing charge
  • Experienced fund manager
Bear points
  • Short-term underperformance

As a result, when the trust is doing well it can trade at a premium to net asset value (NAV), in particular because it is an income fund with an attractive and rising dividend stream. Lowland has increased its dividend every year since 2010, a compound growth rate of 8.5 per cent. But during the (usually) short periods in which its performance slips, it can move out to a discount to NAV.

The trust has struggled over the past year, in part because of its exposure to industrials, which account for more than a quarter of the portfolio. Its managers are retaining their position in the sector "because of the strengths of the individual holdings rather than a macroeconomic-based conviction. These companies are generating cash and debt is low. They have excellent products and they are genuinely competitive in the global market".

As a result, the trust is trading at a discount of more than 9 per cent - one of its widest discounts in recent years. When an investment trust with good long-term returns moves to a discount, this can be a good moment to buy it, as it may well start to perform well again and return to a premium.

"We believe that Lowland currently represents an interesting value opportunity and are therefore adding it to our model portfolio," say analysts at broker Winterflood. "Lowland has a strong long-term performance record, outperforming the FTSE All-Share in NAV and share price terms over the past three and five years, and we rate the manager, James Henderson, highly. However, the contrarian, value-based investment approach can lead to periods of underperformance, as has been the case over the past six months when the NAV fell 2 per cent compared with a rise for the FTSE All-Share.

"But this level of discount represents a significant value opportunity, and we believe that the trust will deliver outperformance over the long term."

Indeed, performance already seems to be turning, with the trust's NAV making positive returns over one and three months - well ahead of its share price performance.

The trust's ongoing charge is just 0.87 per cent, despite a performance fee of 15 per cent of any outperformance of the FTSE All-Share index in excess of 10 per cent over the average of the past three years, on a total return basis.

There is no guarantee that the trust's performance will turn, or that its discount to NAV will tighten or return to a premium. And even if this eventually happens you may have to wait.

However, the trust has recovered from its past periods of underperformance and its discount has come in. For example, we tipped the trust while on a discount of 8.5 per cent last February, but this rapidly tightened in the months after so that at one point in 2015 it was on a premium of more than 3 per cent.

So, if you want to buy cheaply into a trust that is likely to deliver strong returns and outperformance, Lowland is worth a look. Buy.

 

LOWLAND INVESTMENT COMPANY (LWI)

PRICE:1183.5pGEARING:17%
AIC SECTOR:UK Equity Income NAV:1300p
FUND TYPE:Investment trustPRICE DISCOUNT TO NAV:9.20%
MARKET CAP:£318.67mYIELD:3.50%
No OF HOLDINGS:120*ONGOING CHARGE:0.87%
SET UP DATE:5 April 1963MORE DETAILS:lowlandinvestment.com

Source: Morningstar & *Henderson

 

Performance

 1-year share price return (%)3-year cumulative share price return (%)5-year cumulative share price return (%)10-year cumulative share price return (%)
Lowland ord-5.312.672.288.5
FTSE All-Share TR GBP-3.89.234.558.8
AIC UK Equity Income sector average-1.224.669.091.8

Source: Morningstar, as at 14 March 2016

 

Top 10 holdings, as at 31 January 2016 (%)

Hiscox3.1
Senior2.7
Phoenix2.5
Royal Dutch Shell2.4
HSBC2.3
Scapa2.2
BP2.1
Hill & Smith2.0
Irish Continental2.0
GKN1.8

 

Sector breakdown (%)

Industrials27.2
Financials24.9
Basic materials12.1
Consumer services11.0
Oil & gas7.6
Consumer goods6.2
Healthcare4.6
Telecommunications2.8
Utilities2.5
Technology1.2