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Sainsbury's sticks with volume over margins, no Home Retail detail yet

Britain's second-largest grocer isn't spilling further beans on its plans for Argos just yet.
May 4, 2016

Sainsbury's (SBRY) shares fell 4 per cent on the back of the latest full-year results, but in our view there's plenty to be optimistic about. Underlying pre-tax profit - which excludes costs associated with the disposal of properties, the defined-benefit pension scheme, acquisitions and other one-off items - may have fallen 14 per cent to £587m, but that actually beat the company-collated consensus expectation of £574m. The dividend was cut by 8 per cent, but the full-year return still equates to a yield of more than 4 per cent on the current share price.

IC TIP: Buy at 270p

As far as we're concerned, the main disappointment was the lack of further detail relating to the group's recent acquisition of what remains of Argos-owner Home Retail (HOME). The latter once owned DIY chain Homebase as well, but sold it to Australian buyer Wesfarmers earlier in the year. What remains clear is Sainsbury's determination to build a "multi-product, multichannel" shopping experience for its customers, and the warehouse network behind the Argos brand was seen as a big draw. More detail is expected with the deal's completion in the third quarter of the calendar year.

So far Sainsbury's has incurred around £15m in fees associated with the deal, which contributed to exceptional costs totalling £90m. That's a considerable improvement on last year, when one-off expenses reached £713m, as the grocer took impairments against unprofitable stores and sites that it had decided not to develop. In the reported period, the group clawed back £225m in cost savings, and remains on track to reach its target of £500m in recouped costs by the 2018 financial year.

As it stands, the future for Sainsbury's is a mix of challenges and opportunities. Simplifying and lowering prices has boosted volumes and transaction growth, although this had a deflationary effect on like-for-like sales, which dipped 0.9 per cent last year. However, the grocer did hold on to its market share of 16.5 per cent. Elsewhere, general merchandise sales improved by 3.5 per cent, clothing sales rose faster than the market at 8.5 per cent, and Sainsbury's Bank improved its underlying operating profit from £62m to £65m.

Due to lower than expected tax charges, Shore Capital nudged EPS forecasts for the 2017 financial year up to 22.8p from 21.5p, compared with 24.2p in FY2016.

J SAINSBURY (SBRY)
ORD PRICE:269.5pMARKET VALUE:£5.19bn
TOUCH:269.4-269.6p12-MONTH HIGH:294pLOW: 221p
DIVIDEND YIELD:4.5%PE RATIO:11
NET ASSET VALUE:305pNET DEBT:29%

Year to 12 MarTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201222.379932.016.1
201323.377232.016.7
201423.989837.717.3
201523.8-72-8.713.2
201623.554823.912.1
% change-1---8

Ex-div: 12 May

Payment: 8 Jul