If Thursday's official figures confirm the ONS's first estimate of third-quarter GDP, they will show that manufacturing output rose by 0.4 per cent in September, giving us quarterly growth of 0.4 per cent. This would represent a slower expansion than in the first and second quarters of the year. And the slowdown might have continued into October; Monday's purchasing managers' survey could show that growth in the sector has dropped to a 17-month low.
However, purchasing managers might also say on Wednesday that the much larger services sector is holding up better. Thanks in part to this, the NIESR is likely to estimate on Thursday that GDP grew by around 0.7 per cent in the three months to October - only slightly less than its growth earlier this year.
On Thursday, the Bank of England will react to all this by doing nothing: it has long expected a slowdown, so this won't come as a surprise. However, economists have recently been pushing back the date when they expect the first rate rise; it is now not expected until the spring.
A big reason for the UK's manufacturing slowdown is, of course, that the eurozone has been weak. Here, though, there might be some less grim news next week. Final purchasing managers' surveys might confirm the flash estimate, that manufacturing activity strengthened slightly in October. And official German figures could show that industrial production in September bounced back after its shock 4 per cent drop last month. Nevertheless, the overall picture will be that the economy is more or less stagnating, with industrial production in both Germany and France lower than it was in the spring.
The ECB is unlikely to do anything about this on Thursday. However, its press conference could say something about the size of its proposed buying of asset-backed securities, and perhaps even drop a hint that it might consider full-blown quantitative easing.
In the US, meanwhile, things are rather brighter. Although Monday's ISM survey might show a slight slowdown in manufacturing, growth is expected to still be healthy. And Friday's employment report could slow a rise in non-farm payrolls of around 250,000 and a drop in the jobless rate to 5.8 per cent. All this will corroborate economists' expectations that the US economy will remain strong.
