The day before that, German chancellor Angela Merkel visits President Trump at the White House, maybe miffed that she's so far down the pecking order in terms of invites and cosy chats. On 16 March votes will have been counted and the Netherlands might have a government that's very different from what we're used to. It might even be a template for what could happen in France and Italy because the main European political parties are unravelling left, right and centre. All change, all change as they say on the London Underground.
So we look at the AEX index of 25 leading stocks traded in Amsterdam, Unilever (ULVR) and Shell (RDSA), which have dual listing in Holland and the UK, and brewer Heineken (NL:HEIA). Lest we forget, Amsterdam was a city trading commodity futures hundreds of years ago, including options on tulip bulbs in the 17th century - and we know that ended in tears.
The AEX index was adjusted and switched into euros from guilders on 4 January 1999. Peaking at 700 in September 2000, slumping to just over 200 in 2003 and again in 2009, it has rallied in three stages since then. However, from 2002 it has been capped at the 530-560 area, plus it is currently overbought. While we won't rule out a retest of 560, we feel the risk at these levels is that yet again it will fail and turn down. Steer clear for now.
Heineken, which refreshes the parts other beers cannot reach, has seen its share price quadruple since 2009, investors lapping up this defensive and retail-focused business. It too has executed a rally with three waves higher interrupted by two bouts of correction and consolidation. Elliott Wave theory would suggest the upward swing is mature and possibly complete, potentially forming a gentle rounded top pattern since the summer of 2015. Above €65 further tests of the €85-€90 area are possible, though. Below €60 and it's tapped out.
Royal Dutch Shell has traded between €17 and €32 most of the time since 1998. Quite extraordinary how immune the share price is to general market dynamics, oil prices and the growth of renewable energy. This is certainly one for traders, not one to buy and hold, with a squeeze from the current €25 (roughly mid-range) to €30 because momentum is currently bullish.
Unilever, another household name, has also seen a stellar rally, tripling its share price since 2009's low. In the news very recently as it rebuffed Kraft's unwelcome takeover bid, it set a new record high because the price investors are willing to pay to buy this stock has increased incrementally since early 2014. If the €40-€42 area has now become a base, as we believe, then we favour a rally to €50, a conservative measured target based on the height of the flat-topped right-angled triangle in the chart. Have we any takers?
