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UBM shows its worth

UBM expects the recent acquisition of Advanstar to boost earnings and generate cost savings
March 2, 2015

UBM's (UBM) $972m (£599m) acquisition of Advanstar in December created the largest US events business by revenue and a global industry giant. The deal came too late to colour these full-year figures, but operating profits still rose in all three of UBM's divisions, if currency shifts and restructuring costs are stripped out.

IC TIP: Buy at 540p

UBM has shifted its focus towards its largest, most lucrative trade shows. It sold several smaller shows last year and shuttered marketing activities that didn't align with its key events. Management intends to invest £15m and incur a further £15m-£20m in restructuring costs between 2015 and 2017, offset by around £10m in annual cost savings down the line.

The fruits of UBM's labours can be seen in its key events division. Visitor numbers to annual events climbed 15 per cent to 2.2m, sending underlying sales at its 20 largest shows up 7 per cent. And momentum remains strong: adjusted forward bookings for those events were up 8.7 per cent at the end of January.

Emerging markets once again proved a source of growth: underlying annual event sales were up 11 per cent in these regions. That was driven by 'tentpole' events such as Hotelex Shanghai and Cosmoprof Asia, even as the group's Furniture China show faced mounting competition.

Broker Numis forecasts pre-tax profit of £209m in full-year 2015, giving EPS of 38.3p.

UBM (UBM)
ORD PRICE:540pMARKET VALUE:£2.4bn
TOUCH:539-540p12-MONTH HIGH:570pLOW: 384p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.9%PE RATIO:12
NET ASSET VALUE:185p*NET DEBT:64%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201088911637.325.0
201197210225.426.3
201276912243.326.7
2013 (restated)†79411028.321.1
201474614546.421.3
% change-6+33+64+1

Ex-div: 23 Apr

Payment: 27 May

*Includes intangible assets of £1.6bn, or 360p a share

†Earnings and dividend per share adjusted to reflect rights issue