Join our community of smart investors

Aviva plans further capital return after strong 2016

The life assurer is moving closer towards its target dividend payout ratio
March 9, 2017

Investors looking to Aviva (AV.) for income will be pleased with its 2016 performance. A sharp uptick in cash remitted to the composite insurer from its businesses encouraged management to increase the dividend payout ratio by four percentage points to 46 per cent of operating earnings per share - closer to its 2017 target of 50 per cent. In even better news, chief executive Mark Wilson revealed the company's intention to return even more capital in the near future, with a share buyback currently the preferred method.

IC TIP: Buy at 544p

In what Mr Wilson describes as "a high quality problem", the group has excess capital as a result of operating profit growth across its three major divisions: life business; general insurance and health; and fund management. The UK and Ireland life business remitted almost £1.1bn in cash, up almost two-thirds. This included £250m of the £1bn planned from the Friends Life integration, which completed by the year-end. New business was up primarily thanks to a 19 per cent increase in individual annuity sales.

The region's general insurance business incurred a £380m post-tax charge due to the change in the Ogden rate, which also pushed up the combined ratio (of claims to income) to 106 per cent, from 95 per cent the previous year. However the underwriting result, which excludes Ogden, was up by more than a half at £259m partly due to lower weather-related claims and a focus on pricing.

Performance in Europe was patchier, but improved in the second half. Reorganising the French business pushed up its expenses and depressed operating profits at constant currency, while a new insurance levy weighed on its Polish business. However, underwriting improvements more than offset lower investment results in Italy.

Placing more focus on Aviva Investors is also yielding rewards. Assets under management at its flagship multi-strategy funds trebled to £9bn. External inflows and extra Friends Life transfers helped assets under management grow by £55bn to £345bn. In Asia - which Mr Wilson describes as "ripe for disruption" - the discontinuation of its bancassurance with Singaporean DBS bank depressed operating profit. But the group continues to invest in its digital and analytics platforms.

Analysts at UBS expect adjusted EPS of 54.7p for the 12 months to December 2017 (from 50.7p in 2016).

AVIVA (AV.)

ORD PRICE:544pMARKET VALUE:£22.1bn
TOUCH:543.5-544p12-MONTH HIGH:548pLOW: 290p
DIVIDEND YIELD:4.3%PE RATIO:36
NET ASSET VALUE:419p*SOLVENCY II RATIO:189%

Year to 31 DecGross premiums (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£bn)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201222.70.40-11.219
201322.01.4722.015
201421.72.6650.418.1
2015 (restated)21.91.2023.120.8
201625.41.8315.323.3
% change+16+53-34+12

Ex-div: 6 Apr

Payment: 17 May

*Includes intangible assets of £3.7bn, or 91p a share