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Aberdeen hit by fund outflows

The emerging markets fund manager is facing a cyclical downturn in investor sentiment
December 1, 2015

How far can Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN) fall? Chief executive Martin Gilbert (pictured) admitted it was somewhat obvious to point out that the fund manager was "nearer the bottom" in terms of the cyclical decline in investor sentiment towards emerging markets. The final quarter of Aberdeen's financial year to 30 September saw the worst outflows for the asset class since the financial crisis. The problem of emerging-market volatility spooking investors has been compounded by sovereign wealth funds selling out in response to low commodity prices. Aberdeen's assets under management fell by 13 per cent to £284m over the year.

IC TIP: Hold at 326p

To tackle this, the company is pushing forward with its strategy to diversify the business, reduce costs and protect cash. A combination of the first two factors helped lift operating profit by 3 per cent to £367m, while the third paid for a rise in the final dividend from 11.25p to 12p. The top line also grew as a first full-year contribution from the SWIP acquisition offset the impact of weak markets, outflows and a drop in performance fees. The cost synergies in that acquisition exceeded expectations, and the group has identified £50m of annual operating costs that could be cut from the wider business. The savings will partially take effect during the current financial year.

But these steps will have little effect if the pace of outflows does not slow down. Aberdeen lost a net £16.4bn from its equity funds over the year, compared with £13bn in FY2014 - itself considered an annus horribilis. The manager was also forced to stress its commitment to long-term investment in response to criticism that its equities strategies had undershot their benchmarks - a situation it said was "never comfortable".

It was a year of acquisitions to diversify the business into alternative asset classes and to boost the company's exposure to retail investors. On the morning media call Mr Gilbert was also keen to reject reports that the manager has been courting potential acquirers.

Prior to these results, analysts at Numis expected pre-tax profit of £437m and EPS of 26.3p for the year to September 2016, down from the £492m and 30p earned in FY2015.

ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT (ADN)
ORD PRICE:326.4pMARKET VALUE:£4.3bn
TOUCH:325.9-326.4p12-MONTH HIGH:510pLOW: 289p
DIVIDEND YIELD:6.0%PE RATIO:15
NET ASSET VALUE:132p*NET CASH:£568m

Year to 30 SepTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20110.9522415.09
20121.0527018.911.5
20131.3139027.216
20141.2935523.518
20151.3235422.319.5
% change+2--5+8

Ex-div: 7 Jan

Payment: 3 Feb

*Includes intangible assets of £1.5bn, or 113p a share